国产替代浪潮中的隐形冠军①｜时代的“寒王”

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant rise of Cambrian, which became the highest-priced stock in the A-share market, surpassing Kweichow Moutai, with a stock price of 1462 CNY per share, marking a daily increase of 10.01% [2] - Cambrian's impressive half-year report for 2025 showed a revenue of 2.881 billion CNY, a staggering increase of 4347.82% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.038 billion CNY, indicating a successful transition from a loss of over 500 million CNY in the previous year to substantial profitability [2][4] Group 1: Valuation Restructuring - Cambrian has undergone a valuation restructuring over three years, transitioning from a historical low of 46.59 CNY per share to a peak, driven by a match between industry rhythm and market expectations [4] - The half-year report confirms the transformation of technological value into performance momentum, triggering strong market expectations for the removal of the "-U" designation from its stock [4] - East China Securities predicts Cambrian's net profit for 2025 could reach 1.595 billion CNY, indicating a strong likelihood of removing the "-U" designation [5] Group 2: Growth Drivers - Cambrian's growth is primarily driven by the significant expansion of its cloud product line, benefiting from increasing AI computing demand in various industries and accelerated domestic substitution policies [5] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 8.443 billion CNY, 16.171 billion CNY, and 25.104 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 618.91%, 91.52%, and 55.25% [5] - The projected net profit for the same period shows a consistent upward trend, with figures of 1.595 billion CNY, 3.860 billion CNY, and 6.913 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 452.69%, 141.96%, and 79.09% respectively [5] Group 3: Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Cambrian's valuation is significantly lower than comparable companies, with projected PE ratios of 153x, 63x, and 35x from 2025 to 2027, indicating a strong value proposition in the market [6] - The company is positioned as a key player in the domestic AI chip market, with its products meeting the requirements for self-control and avoiding supply chain risks [9] - The rise of Cambrian is seen as a reflection of the broader trend of domestic chip companies moving towards product and revenue scale, marking a shift from mere technological catch-up to ecosystem competition [9] Group 4: Industry Trends - The demand for computing power is experiencing an "irreversible explosion," with global computing capacity expected to grow at over 50% annually, reaching over 16 ZFlops by 2030 [8] - Major investments in AI-related capital expenditures by domestic companies are anticipated to exceed 300 billion CNY by 2025, driven by the need for AI model training and inference [8] - Cambrian's products have been widely tested and adopted by major internet companies, indicating a successful transition from research and development to practical application [9] Group 5: Future Considerations - Despite the current success, there are concerns regarding customer concentration, with the top five clients accounting for over 80% of accounts receivable, which could pose risks to order stability [12] - The high valuation of Cambrian raises questions about sustainability, particularly if AI computing demand does not meet expectations or if there is a slowdown in the industry [13] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with both domestic startups and established players vying for market share, necessitating Cambrian to maintain its technological edge [14]