秋季市场券商前瞻：科技主线与资金活水共舞

Core Insights - Multiple brokerages are optimistic about the continuation of policies and improvement in liquidity, expressing confidence in the long-term revaluation trend of Chinese assets [1][2] - The global asset allocation is gradually becoming more diversified and decentralized [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The domestic fiscal policy has exceeded expectations in its richness, with improved liquidity for residents, government, and markets, and a continuation of a growth-stabilizing policy stance is expected [2] - The chief macroeconomic analyst at Huatai Securities warns of potential declines in the credibility of the US dollar, suggesting investors should actively allocate to scarce assets like equities [2] - The domestic liquidity is expected to remain clear in Q4, with market focus shifting to whether earnings can follow the recovery in valuations and sentiment [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Trading funds are experiencing sustained net inflows, with activity levels reaching the highest since 2016, and there is still room for active foreign capital to increase positions in A-shares [4] - The net inflow of funds into A-shares this year is approximately 2.1% of the free float market value, indicating a slight net inflow status [4] - There is a potential shift of resident funds from bank wealth management products to non-bank wealth management products and capital markets [4] Group 3: Sector Focus - The Chinese capital market is entering an unprecedented new phase, requiring new thinking to understand future market dynamics [5] - The large technology sector is expected to continue to strengthen its resource allocation function, resembling the structural characteristics of the Nasdaq market [6] - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors benefiting from the recovery of overseas manufacturing, capital goods under accelerated investment, and insurance and brokerage firms expected to benefit from bottoming capital returns [6]