Group 1: Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 81.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.36 billion yuan, up 35% year-on-year [1] - The growth in performance is attributed to an increase in both volume and price of products, with aluminum alloy sales reaching approximately 2.906 million tons, a 2.4% increase year-on-year, and alumina sales at 6.368 million tons, a 15.6% increase year-on-year [1] - The average selling prices for aluminum alloy and alumina were 17,853 yuan/ton and 3,243 yuan/ton, reflecting year-on-year increases of 2.7% and 10.3% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The domestic aluminum price as of August 25, 2025, was 20,820 yuan/ton, representing a 4.7% increase since the beginning of the year, supported by a declining US dollar index and sustained industry demand [1] - The forecast for domestic aluminum consumption in 2025 is 54.3549 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 1.46%, and a projected growth of 3.06% when excluding export products [2] Group 3: Shareholder Returns and Corporate Actions - The company plans to repurchase shares worth no less than 3 billion Hong Kong dollars, demonstrating confidence in its future prospects and long-term value [2] - The company declared a dividend of 1.02 Hong Kong cents per share on June 13, 2025, with a total dividend payout of 1.61 Hong Kong cents per share for the 2024 fiscal year, compared to 0.63 Hong Kong cents per share in 2023, resulting in a dividend yield of 11% based on the closing price on the ex-dividend date [2] Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The aluminum smelting industry is approaching inclusion in the national carbon market, with guidelines for greenhouse gas emissions reporting and verification being publicly solicited for feedback [2] - The carbon emissions from producing electrolytic aluminum using thermal power are approximately 13 tons per ton of aluminum, while using hydropower results in only 1.8 tons, indicating potential cost pressures for thermal power aluminum production [2] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 24.73 billion yuan, 26.60 billion yuan, and 28.71 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 5.8%, 5.6%, and 3.4% [3] - The current price-to-earnings ratios based on the adjusted profit forecasts are 8.8, 8.1, and 7.5 for the respective years, maintaining an "overweight" rating due to the company's leading position in the aluminum industry [3]
中国宏桥(1378.HK)：量价齐升助力业绩同比高增 高额回购彰显公司长期信心