鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔会议后美联储必须做什么

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Jerome Powell's acknowledgment of tariffs not exacerbating inflation opens the door for potential interest rate cuts in September [1][2][9] - Powell's realization reflects a historical misunderstanding of Trump's economic policies, which have previously led to strong economic growth and price stability [2][3] - The market reacted positively, with the Dow Jones index surpassing 45,000 points, indicating expectations of a rate cut [2] Group 2 - The current high interest rates in the U.S. are significantly out of sync with global rates, creating challenges for U.S. exporters and small businesses [3][4][6] - The average fixed mortgage rate remains between 6-7%, which is double pre-pandemic levels, hindering housing market recovery [4] - The U.S. faces a tightening monetary policy that is seen as excessive, with real interest rates at their highest in nearly two decades [7][9] Group 3 - Powell's defense of maintaining high rates to stabilize inflation expectations is viewed as an overreaction to concerns about tariff-driven inflation [8][9] - A more aggressive rate cut of up to 100 basis points is suggested to align U.S. rates with global standards and alleviate pressure on households and exporters [9]