财经观察：美国重压下，印度会削减“俄油”吗？

Core Viewpoint - The United States has imposed a 50% tariff on goods imported from India in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil, which has significantly increased since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][2]. Group 1: India's Oil Imports - India has increased its imports of Russian oil from 2% before the conflict to over 30% currently, with approximately 1 million barrels per day being imported [1][2]. - The price of Russian oil is significantly lower than global market prices, with Indian imports priced between $50 to $60 per barrel compared to $75 to $90 per barrel globally [2][4]. - India's oil production has been declining, with a 18% decrease since 2017, and it is projected that India's oil demand will grow by nearly 2 million barrels per day by 2035 [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The low cost of Russian oil has led to substantial profits for India's oil refining industry, with oil exports increasing to $84.96 billion in 2023, raising market share from 6.5% in 2018 to 12.6% [4][5]. - Reliance Industries, which operates one of the world's largest refineries, has seen its profits surge due to increased Russian oil imports [4][5]. - Approximately 20% of the profits from Russian oil imports contribute to the central government, while 15% goes to local governments, and 65% is retained by private refining companies [8]. Group 3: Geopolitical Considerations - European countries initially supported India's import of Russian oil to avoid a global oil supply crisis and rising prices, particularly in light of inflation concerns [6]. - The U.S. and Europe continue to purchase refined oil products from India, with Reliance Industries exporting nearly $20 billion worth of refined oil to Europe in the 2023-2024 fiscal year [6][7]. - India's foreign minister emphasized that oil procurement decisions are made by Indian companies independently, and the government cannot interfere [7]. Group 4: Future Strategies - India is exploring diversification of its oil imports, with the number of oil-exporting countries increasing from 27 to 40 [11]. - The Indian government is investing in domestic exploration and renewable energy, with plans to allocate approximately $2.3 billion for nuclear energy development [11]. - Indian oil companies are developing alternative plans for Russian oil imports in response to U.S. pressure [11].