供给过剩背景下白糖以偏空思路为宜

Group 1 - Recent domestic sugar prices have rebounded slightly, with prices in Guangxi increasing by 60 yuan/ton from a low of 5900 yuan/ton, but failing to break the key level of 6000 yuan/ton [1] - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays are expected to provide some support for sugar prices, although actual demand remains to be observed [1][2] - Seasonal demand is driving trade activities, with traders replenishing stocks and food processing companies purchasing raw materials, leading to a slight recovery in sugar prices [2] Group 2 - Brazil's sugar production remains high, with a cumulative production of 19.268 million tons reported for the second half of July, a decrease of 7.76% compared to the same period last year [3] - Despite the decrease, there are concerns about potential downward adjustments in production due to lower sugarcane yields and ATR in Brazil's central-southern region [3] - The sugar production ratio in Brazil reached a historical high of 52.06% by the end of July, indicating significant variability in sugar output [3] Group 3 - Domestic sugar imports have rapidly increased, with a total production of 11.16 million tons expected for the 2024/2025 season, an increase of nearly 1 million tons year-on-year [4] - Sugar imports from May to July showed significant year-on-year growth, with increases of 1650%, 1300%, and 76% respectively, effectively supplementing domestic demand for the holidays [4] - The upcoming new sugar production season is expected to exert downward pressure on sugar prices, as new production will be launched soon [4]