宏观“强预期”与产业“弱现实”博弈 聚丙烯暂时震荡企稳

Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The price of polypropylene futures 2601 contract rebounded after reaching a low of 6970 yuan/ton, driven by optimistic macroeconomic expectations [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish signals at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference have increased market expectations for a rate cut in September, with a 91.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut [1] - The financial market is also betting on two rate cuts by the end of the year, indicating a significant shift in monetary policy outlook [1] Group 2: Cost Factors - Geopolitical premiums have decreased, and cost factors for polypropylene are weakening, particularly due to stabilizing domestic coal prices while crude oil prices lack upward momentum [2] - Recent diplomatic efforts between the US and Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict have contributed to a reduction in geopolitical risks, further impacting oil prices [2] - The oil market is shifting focus to an oversupply situation, which is putting additional pressure on crude oil prices and weakening cost support for polypropylene [2] Group 3: Production and Supply - Polypropylene production has seen a slight increase due to the resumption of operations at facilities like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Guangdong Petrochemical, with an average capacity utilization rate of 78.22% [3] - Domestic polypropylene production reached 78630 tons last week, a week-on-week increase of 320 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 118400 tons, reflecting a growth rate of 17.73% [3] - Despite delays in new production facilities, the overall trend indicates a potential for continued recovery in polypropylene production [3] Group 4: Demand and Market Conditions - Demand for polypropylene remains weak, with downstream consumption not meeting expectations, leading to price declines as companies reduce inventory [4] - The average operating rate in downstream industries is generally increasing, but some companies are halting operations due to insufficient orders, particularly in the BOPP sector [4] - The overall market sentiment is improving due to macroeconomic factors, but the reality of weak demand and rising supply pressures suggests that polypropylene futures may stabilize in a fluctuating manner [4]