光伏玻璃市场“绝地反击”，三大核心变量主导后市走向

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic glass market is experiencing a significant rebound after a period of oversupply and high inventory, raising questions about whether this is a temporary recovery or a long-term trend [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass is currently stable at 88,200 tons, down 11% from the peak in early May and 15.8% year-on-year, but supply is stabilizing due to the recovery of previously blocked capacity [1]. - The average inventory days in the industry have dropped sharply from over 32 days in June to 17.7 days currently, indicating a significant reduction in stock levels [1]. - Certain specifications, such as 2.0mm coated glass, are experiencing structural shortages, with some companies' inventories falling below the 10-day warning line [1]. Price Trends - The price of 2.0mm single-coated photovoltaic glass has increased from 10 yuan per square meter to 11-11.5 yuan per square meter in August, with expectations for further increases to 13 yuan per square meter in September [2]. - The market is witnessing a dual effect of preemptive stockpiling by component manufacturers and rising prices, leading to a shift from oversupply to a temporary supply shortage [2]. Demand Drivers - The current demand surge is primarily driven by preemptive stockpiling in anticipation of policy changes, rather than a genuine increase in end-user demand [3]. - The cancellation of the export tax rebate for photovoltaic components starting in Q4 2024 has prompted manufacturers to stock up, leading to increased procurement of photovoltaic glass [2][3]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that while demand may remain stable in September, it could weaken in October due to high overseas inventory and a potential reduction in export volumes following the policy changes [4]. - The future trajectory of the photovoltaic glass market will depend on three key variables: production capacity, policy changes regarding export tax rebates, and the ability of price increases to be transmitted downstream [5]. Market Sentiment - There are concerns about the sustainability of the current market conditions, as the demand is largely driven by stockpiling rather than actual installation needs, which could lead to a return to oversupply once stockpiling ceases [3][5]. - The industry is advised to monitor the ability of price increases to be effectively passed down the supply chain, as this will indicate whether the supply-demand dynamics have genuinely improved [5].