光伏玻璃市场“绝地反击” 三大核心变量主导后市走向

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic glass market is experiencing a significant rebound after a period of oversupply and high inventory, raising questions about whether this is a temporary recovery or a long-term trend [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass is currently stable at 88,200 tons, down 11% from the peak in early May and 15.8% year-on-year [1] - The average inventory days in the industry have decreased sharply from over 32 days in June to 17.7 days currently, indicating a significant reduction in stock levels [1] - Certain specifications, such as 2.0mm coated glass, are experiencing structural shortages, with some companies' inventories falling below the 10-day warning line [1] Price Movements - The price of 2.0mm single-coated photovoltaic glass has risen from 10 yuan per square meter to 11-11.5 yuan per square meter in August, with expectations to reach 13 yuan per square meter in September [2] - The anticipation of price increases has led to a stocking behavior among downstream companies, which has not affected their purchasing pace [2] Market Drivers - The sudden market shift is primarily driven by policy expectations leading to a temporary release of demand rather than a substantial improvement in end-user demand [2] - The announcement of the cancellation of the export tax rebate for photovoltaic components has prompted companies to stock up in anticipation of policy changes, leading to increased procurement of photovoltaic glass [2][3] Demand Limitations - Despite the current market enthusiasm, the growth in demand is still limited, with component production increasing only slightly and remaining below supply levels [3] - The current demand surge is driven by inventory replenishment rather than actual growth in terminal installation demand, raising concerns about the sustainability of this market rebound [3] Future Outlook - The market's trajectory will depend on three core variables: capacity adjustments, policy changes regarding export tax rebates, and the ability of price increases to be transmitted downstream [5][6] - If new production capacity is released as expected in October, it could increase supply pressure in the market [6] - The cancellation of export tax rebates and potential supply-side production limits will significantly impact future market dynamics [6] Conclusion - The photovoltaic glass market is currently in a state of cautious optimism, with short-term price increases and inventory reductions, but the long-term sustainability of this trend remains uncertain due to underlying demand issues and potential policy impacts [4][6]