股债“双牛”行情不具持续性

Group 1 - The bond market is expected to experience weak fluctuations in the short term due to high market risk appetite and the influence of stock market performance on bond market dynamics [1][4] - Recent policies focus on "anti-involution," promoting consumption, and stabilizing expectations, leading to a strong stock market while the bond market remains weak [1][3] - The "seesaw" effect between stocks and bonds is evident, where optimistic economic expectations lead to increased stock allocation and reduced bond allocation, and vice versa [1][2] Group 2 - Historical data shows that there have been four notable "dual bull" markets in stocks and bonds since 2016, typically lasting less than one month and occurring when economic fundamentals remain stable [2] - The current strong stock market is driven by global liquidity easing and a stable domestic economic and policy environment, attracting steady capital inflow [3][4] - The bond market has shown relative resilience due to stable institutional liabilities and controlled redemption pressures, with a strong demand for government bonds despite rising yields [4]