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铁矿石价格面临下行压力
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-08-28 00:25

Core Viewpoint - The global iron ore supply is expected to increase, while demand is projected to decline, leading to downward pressure on iron ore prices in the latter half of the year [1][11]. Supply - China's steel production capacity and output account for over 50% of the global total, requiring more than 1.1 billion tons of iron ore annually, which constitutes over 70% of global iron ore imports [1]. - Global iron ore production is expected to increase by 30.39 million tons in 2025, with a significant rise of 62.37 million tons in the second half of the year due to projects like the Iron Bridge and Onslow [3]. - The four major mining companies dominate the global iron ore market, controlling pricing and capturing over 90% of the profits in China's steel industry [1][11]. Demand - Global crude steel production decreased by 1.6% year-on-year to 1.086 billion tons in the first seven months of the year, with expectations of negative growth in 2025 [8]. - Despite a strong demand for iron ore in the domestic market, steel mills are likely to reduce production in the latter half of the year due to declining steel demand and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies [8][11]. - China's iron ore imports decreased by 2.4% year-on-year in the first seven months, impacting total domestic iron ore supply [4][9]. Cost - The cash cost of iron ore from the four major mining companies is between $20 and $40 per ton, while domestic production costs range from $80 to $90 per ton [10]. - The average import price of iron ore for China was around $117 to $120 per ton in 2022-2023, with a projected decrease to approximately $109 per ton in 2024 [2]. Profitability - Domestic steel mills are facing thin profit margins, with some operating at breakeven, while the four major mining companies enjoy profit margins exceeding 200% [11]. - The anticipated increase in iron ore supply and the decline in steel demand are expected to pressure iron ore prices downward in the latter half of the year [11].