华通线缆(605196)：海外营收稳增 电解铝项目有望贡献业绩弹性

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 12.95% year-on-year for 1H25, but a significant decline of 29.30% in net profit attributable to shareholders, aligning with market expectations [1] Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue reached 3.425 billion yuan, with cable revenue up 14.20% to 2.987 billion yuan and revenue from continuous pipes and operating devices up 12.63% to 333 million yuan [1] - 2Q25 revenue was 1.890 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.36%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 96 million yuan, down 8.18% [1] - Overseas revenue showed strong growth, with 1H25 overseas/inland revenue at 2.389 billion yuan/931 million yuan, up 18.14%/4.73% year-on-year [1] - The U.S. sales subsidiary generated 737 million yuan in revenue, a 22.09% increase year-on-year, attributed to strong downstream demand [1] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for 1H25 was 14.54%, down 2.17 percentage points year-on-year, with overseas/inland gross margins at 13.80%/14.69%, reflecting a decline of 5.30/+3.49 percentage points [2] - The decrease in overseas gross margin is primarily due to rising tariffs and freight costs, but improvements are expected as high-margin products increase and tariff negotiations progress [2] - The company's expense ratio for 1H25 was 9.13%, up 0.39 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 4.02%, down 2.40 percentage points [2] Development Trends - The company is enhancing its overseas presence, with a new production base in Panama to support North American market needs and a new aluminum electrolysis plant in Angola to strengthen supply chain stability [3] - The first phase of the Angola project is expected to be completed in the second half of 2025, with an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, contributing to performance in 2026 [3] - Contracts worth 25 million USD and 30 million USD were signed with commodity traders, indicating progress towards production [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to tariff and freight disruptions, the 2025 net profit forecast has been reduced by 35% to 330 million yuan, with a new 2026 net profit forecast of 560 million yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 31.5/18.9 for 2025/2026, with a target price increase of 71% to 22 yuan, indicating a 7% upside potential [4]