70页|2025中国AI企业出海系列研究：印尼篇

Economic Overview - Indonesia's economy shows signs of "resilience with slight cooling" in 2025, with Q1 GDP growth at 4.87%, down from over 5% in the previous year, primarily due to falling commodity prices and slowing exports. However, agriculture (+10.5%) and transportation services maintained double-digit growth, indicating a stable domestic demand base [1][2] - In Q2, Indonesia's GDP grew by 5.12%, exceeding market expectations, ranking second among ASEAN countries, only behind Vietnam's 7.96% growth, while Malaysia and Singapore recorded 4.50% and 4.30% respectively [1][2] - The economic engine for Indonesia in 2025 will increasingly rely on domestic drivers, including public infrastructure investments, subsidies for middle and low-income groups, and structural contributions from emerging industries like nickel batteries and the digital economy [1][2] Investment and Economic Stimulus - Indonesia plans to implement a fiscal stimulus package totaling approximately 24.44 trillion IDR (around 1.5 billion USD) starting June, aimed at enhancing purchasing power and domestic demand through transportation subsidies, wage support, toll fee reductions, and food assistance [20][21] - The Indonesian government is seeking international investment partners for a 700-kilometer dam project on the northern coast of Java, with an estimated cost of 80 billion USD, inviting participation from China and Japan [24] - The Indonesian sovereign wealth fund Danantara has initiated its first round of financing, allocating 3 billion USD from its 10 billion USD fund to projects in chemicals, digital technology, and artificial intelligence [28] Trade Relations and Agreements - Indonesia and the EU have reached a political agreement to advance the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which will create new free trade opportunities in agriculture, automotive, and key mineral sectors [29] - Indonesia has signed a trade agreement with the United States, eliminating tariffs on approximately 99% of U.S. industrial, food, and agricultural products, while committing to purchase around 22.7 billion USD worth of U.S. goods [33][34] Demographic and Economic Structure - Indonesia is the fourth most populous country globally, with a population of approximately 281 million in 2024, accounting for about 40% of ASEAN's total population. The country is experiencing a demographic dividend, with a significant portion of the population in the working-age group [52][53] - By 2025, the median age in Indonesia is expected to rise to about 30.4 years, with the working-age population reaching 68.1%, indicating a continued demographic advantage that supports consumption in housing, education, and healthcare sectors [54][55]