回归基本面交易逻辑 多晶硅期价跳水

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in polysilicon futures prices is attributed to a weakening of the "anti-involution" sentiment, leading to a return to fundamental trading logic [1][2]. Price Trends - On August 27, polysilicon futures prices fell below 50,000 yuan/ton, with the main contract PS2511 closing at 48,690 yuan/ton, marking a 4.89% decrease [1]. - The market has seen a shift from a backwardation structure to a contango structure, indicating increasing pressure on prices [3]. Market Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the current decline in polysilicon prices is influenced by reduced bullish sentiment and a lack of substantial policy support following a rapid rebound in July and August [1][2]. - The supply side is showing increasing pressure, with the industry operating at approximately 48% capacity and weekly production reaching 29,700 tons [2]. Demand Factors - The demand for polysilicon is under pressure, with July's domestic installation capacity dropping to 11.04 GW and low levels of new installations in August [2]. - Component manufacturers are facing dual pressures from rising upstream raw material prices and scarce downstream orders [2]. Inventory and Market Outlook - As of August 22, polysilicon weekly inventory stood at 245,020 tons, with delivery warehouse receipts reaching 20,640 tons by August 27 [3]. - The market is expected to experience intensified speculative trading as policy expectations weaken, and without further supply-side stimulation, prices may continue to decline [3]. Policy Implications - The revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law restricts platform operators from forcing sellers to price below cost, which may impact market competition and the likelihood of effective capacity consolidation [3][4]. - Despite expectations of price declines, there remains strong support at lower price levels, suggesting that the current price drop is a temporary adjustment rather than a reversal [4].