光伏玻璃市场"绝地反击" 三大核心变量主导后市走向

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic glass market is experiencing a significant rebound after a period of oversupply and high inventory, raising questions about whether this is a temporary recovery or a trend reversal [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass is currently stable at 88,200 tons, down 11% from the peak in early May and 15.8% year-on-year, but supply is stabilizing due to the recovery of previously blocked capacity [1]. - The average inventory days in the industry have dropped sharply from over 32 days in June to 17.7 days currently, indicating a significant reduction in stock levels [1]. - Certain specifications, such as 2.0mm coated glass, are experiencing structural shortages, with some companies' inventories falling below the 10-day warning line [1]. Price Trends - The price of 2.0mm single-coated photovoltaic glass has increased from 10 yuan per square meter to 11-11.5 yuan per square meter in August, with expectations for further increases to 13 yuan per square meter in September [2]. - The market is witnessing a dual effect of preemptive stockpiling by component manufacturers and rising prices, leading to a shift from oversupply to a temporary supply shortage [2]. Demand Drivers - The current demand surge is primarily driven by stockpiling in anticipation of policy changes rather than a genuine increase in end-user demand [3]. - The cancellation of the export tax rebate for photovoltaic components has prompted manufacturers to stock up, leading to increased procurement of photovoltaic glass [2][3]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that while demand may remain stable in September, it could weaken in October due to high overseas inventory and a potential reduction in exports following the policy changes [4]. - The future trajectory of the photovoltaic glass market will depend on three key variables: capacity adjustments, policy impacts, and price transmission to downstream sectors [5][6]. Key Variables - Capacity adjustments may lead to increased supply pressure if new production capacity is released as expected in October [6]. - The timing and enforcement of the cancellation of the export tax rebate will significantly influence future export levels [6]. - The ability of price increases to be transmitted downstream will determine whether the current market conditions can be sustained [6].