日债成了“价值陷阱”？投资大佬正被3.2%收益率反噬

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is experiencing significant volatility, with rising yields and declining demand, leading to concerns about the sustainability of investments in long-term Japanese government bonds [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - After a significant sell-off of Japanese government bonds at the end of last year, investors like Brendan Murphy from Insight Investment saw an opportunity in 30-year bonds, which offered attractive yields near historical highs [2]. - The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) decision to maintain its monetary policy without raising interest rates has contributed to the ongoing pressure on long-term bonds, with yields reaching over 3.2%, erasing previous gains for investors [2][3]. - The global bond market is also affected by Japan's bond market fluctuations, as rising yields in Japan have led to synchronized volatility across global fixed-income markets [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Despite the challenges, some investors remain optimistic about Japanese bonds, with Insight Investment's Murphy still holding his positions, believing in the potential for future gains if inflation concerns ease [2][7]. - However, other investment firms, such as PGIM, view the current situation as a "value trap," where bonds appear cheap but may continue to decline in value [3]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Factors - Foreign investment in Japanese long-term bonds has significantly decreased, with net purchases dropping to 479.5 billion yen in July, the lowest level since January [4]. - The aging population in Japan is leading to a structural decline in demand for long-term bonds, as pension funds and insurance companies are becoming hesitant to invest [5][6]. - The BOJ's gradual reduction in bond purchases is further weakening market support, contributing to the downward pressure on bond prices [3][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Some analysts suggest that the BOJ may need to raise interest rates to improve the performance of long-term bonds, with expectations for a potential rate hike not occurring until early 2026 [5]. - There are signs of potential recovery, as the Japanese government has started to reduce long-term bond issuance, which may help alleviate supply-demand imbalances [7]. - Certain investors are beginning to enter the market, betting on a bottoming out of Japanese long-term bonds, with expectations of significant returns if yields decrease [7].