Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Shenzhou International (02313) at 4.39/4.80 HKD for 2025/26, with the current stock price corresponding to 12/11 times the 2025/26 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, and maintains an outperform rating for the industry. The target price is raised by 5.5% to 73.72 HKD, implying a 24% upside potential based on a 15/14 times P/E ratio for 2025/26 [1]. Group 1 - The company's 1H25 performance aligns with expectations, reporting a revenue increase of 15% to 15 billion HKD and a net profit increase of 8% to 3.2 billion HKD. The company declared an interim dividend of 1.38 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 60% [2]. - Revenue growth of 15% exceeded expectations, primarily driven by rapid sales growth and continued market share gains among major clients. Revenue from four key brands—Uniqlo, Nike, Adidas, and Puma—grew by 27%, 6%, 28%, and 15% respectively. Regionally, revenue from China, Europe, Japan, and the US grew by -2%, 20%, 18%, and 36%, respectively, with respective shares of 24%, 20%, 17%, and 17% [3]. - The gross margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 27.1% due to several factors, including significant wage increases starting in 2H24, rising employee numbers in Cambodia, and changes in customer structure. Other income sources, such as government subsidies and foreign exchange gains, increased by 230 million HKD year-on-year, but were offset by a higher tax rate, leading to an overall net profit increase of 8% [3]. Group 2 - The impact of tariffs is manageable, with stable order rhythms and pricing agreements under current tariff arrangements. The company continues to increase its workforce in Cambodia and Vietnam, enhancing production efficiency and indicating a growing share of Southeast Asian capacity in the overall production [4]. - Management maintains guidance for low double-digit order growth in 2025, with expectations for high single-digit year-on-year order growth in 2H25. The company anticipates improvements in gross margin in 2H25 as the one-time wage increases and customer structure changes are expected to stabilize [5].
中金：维持申洲国际跑赢行业评级 上调目标价至73.72港元