中国抛售美债规模创纪录！1个月狂减900亿，美元霸权崩塌倒计时？

Core Viewpoint - China's record sale of US Treasury bonds, amounting to $90 billion in a single month, signals a potential shift in the global financial landscape and raises questions about the future of the US dollar's dominance [1][3]. Group 1: Sale Data and Strategic Shift - In the first seven months of 2024, China reduced its US Treasury holdings by a total of $240 billion, averaging $34 billion per month [4]. - The single-month sale in July 2025 reached $90 billion, doubling the pace of the first half of the year, equating to a daily reduction of $3 billion [5]. - The proceeds from the bond sales are being redirected into three main areas: gold reserves, with China increasing its holdings to over 3,000 tons; investments in RMB-denominated assets, particularly in ASEAN bonds; and strategic resources, including a $50 billion investment in South American lithium and African cobalt mines [6][7][8]. Group 2: Reasons for Accelerated Sales - Geopolitical risks, particularly the escalation of the US-China tech war and the precedent of the US freezing Russian assets, have prompted China to set a "safety line" for its US Treasury holdings, currently at 12% of its foreign reserves [8]. - Concerns over the US dollar's creditworthiness have intensified, with the national debt exceeding $38 trillion and projected fiscal deficits reaching $2.1 trillion in 2025, leading to a downgrade in the US's debt rating [9]. - The internationalization of the RMB is accelerating, with its share in cross-border payments rising to 12.7% in the first half of 2025, up from just 2% in 2020, diminishing the demand for dollar reserves [10]. Group 3: Market Impact - The sale of US Treasuries has led to a tightening of dollar liquidity, with the LIBOR rate increasing by 0.5 percentage points despite Japan and the Federal Reserve absorbing some of the bonds [11]. - The yield on 10-year US Treasuries has surpassed 4.5%, while 30-year yields are nearing 5%, contributing to a 25% drop in real estate transaction volumes as mortgage rates rise to 7.2% [12]. - A trend towards de-dollarization is evident, with Brazil increasing its RMB reserves from 5% to 20%, Saudi Arabia accepting RMB for 50% of its oil trade with China, and India piloting direct exchanges between the rupee and RMB [13][14][15]. Group 4: US Response Strategies - The US Congress is considering the Foreign Sovereign Asset Review Act to impose sanctions on countries that aggressively sell US Treasuries, but China's diversified holdings complicate enforcement [15]. - The Federal Reserve may consider an emergency rate hike of 50 basis points to attract capital back, although this could exacerbate the risk of economic recession [16]. - The US government has criticized China for destabilizing global financial markets, while the IMF attributes the weakening of the dollar's dominance to the US's own fiscal mismanagement [17]. Group 5: Future Scenarios for Dollar Dominance - Scenario 1: A gradual decline in dollar dominance, with RMB's global reserve share rising to 18% by 2030, while the dollar falls below 50% [18]. - Scenario 2: A sudden collapse triggered by a chain reaction of bond sales, leading to a liquidity crisis in the Treasury market and a potential 5% drop in the dollar index [19]. - Scenario 3: The US regaining payment supremacy through the introduction of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), although this would require a 3-5 year timeframe [20].