多空拉锯金价逼近3400关口，关注初请和GDP修正数据

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing relative stability amid uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical risks, with potential volatility lurking beneath the surface [1][2][4] Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty - President Trump’s attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, impacting market confidence and increasing gold's short-term appeal [1][3] - The market anticipates an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, which supports gold's resilience [5] - Fed officials emphasize that any rate cut will depend on upcoming economic data, adding to the uncertainty surrounding gold prices [5][6] Inflation Data Impact - The upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is crucial, with expectations of a 2.6% increase for July, which could influence rate cut expectations and gold prices [2][6] - If PCE data shows stronger inflation, it may challenge the Fed's rate cut path, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][6][10] Market Dynamics: Dollar and Bond Market - The dollar's fluctuations and bond market dynamics are closely linked to gold prices, with recent movements indicating cautious investor sentiment [7][8] - The yield curve has steepened, suggesting economic recovery expectations, but also hints at potential for more accommodative policies, indirectly benefiting gold [7][8] Summary - The gold market is at a crossroads influenced by multiple factors, including Fed internal conflicts, inflation data, and market dynamics, with the PCE data being a decisive variable for short-term price movements [9][10]