Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Shenzhen International (00152) for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of HKD 9.38, indicating a potential upside of 23.8% from the current stock price [1] Financial Performance - The company reported 1H25 revenue of HKD 6.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 490 million, down 24.9%, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] - The decline in net profit is primarily due to a one-time tax benefit of approximately HKD 587 million recognized in the same period last year [2] Business Segment Analysis - Toll Roads and Environmental Protection: - 1H25 toll road revenue was HKD 2.64 billion, roughly flat year-on-year, but up 4% after excluding one-off impacts, driven by revenue growth from Jiangjiang Expressway and Jihe Expressway [3] - Environmental protection revenue increased by 2% to HKD 810 million, achieving a net profit of HKD 95.32 million [3] - Logistics and Port Operations: - Logistics park revenue rose by 5% to HKD 790 million, but net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 90% to HKD 55.91 million due to high base effects from last year's public REIT issuance [3] - Logistics services revenue surged by 47% to HKD 200 million, with a loss of HKD 47.98 million attributed to structural adjustments and rising operational costs [3] - Port revenue decreased by 13% to HKD 1.39 billion, with net profit down 72% to HKD 1.204 million, impacted by slowing market demand and increased depreciation costs from the Jingjiang Port project [3] - Logistics park transformation generated revenue of HKD 68.74 million, with a profit of HKD 200 million, benefiting from property sales in the Qianhai residential project [3] Future Outlook - The logistics park's large closed-loop model is expected to continue contributing to performance, with anticipated tax-adjusted gains of HKD 2.367 billion from the first phase of the South China logistics park [4] - The transformation of the South China logistics park is projected to gradually release land appreciation and development gains over the next 6-8 years [4] - The company plans to continue promoting public REIT expansions and private fund issuances to achieve cash flow and value appreciation [4] Dividend Policy - The company maintains a stable dividend policy, with an average payout ratio of 51% over the past five years, leading to an attractive dividend yield of 9.7% for 2025/2026 based on a 50% payout assumption [5]
中金：维持深圳国际跑赢行业评级 目标价9.38港元