多晶硅：现货价格提供底部刚性支撑，高位宽幅震荡

Market Performance - The main contract price of polysilicon has significantly decreased, with the PS2511 closing at 48,690 CNY/ton, down 4.13%, with a trading volume of 502,410 lots and an open interest of 154,537 lots, reflecting a net increase of 17,059 lots [1] Future Outlook - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is expected to be between 45,000 to 52,000 CNY/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,900 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.05% [1] - Polysilicon production is projected to rise to 125,000 tons in August, but will enter a production limit and sales control phase in September. Downstream inventory replenishment is expected to buffer the pressure from declining terminal demand [1] - In July, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China was only 11 GW, indicating that domestic demand remains weak following the "rush installation" phase in the first half of the year [1] - Price rigidity is providing support for the market, but the policy-driven phase is entering a rational stage, with a decrease in risk appetite due to a policy vacuum and continuous increase in warehouse receipts, leading to wide fluctuations in the market [1] Risk Factors - The implementation of anti-involution policies has exceeded expectations, leading to a greater-than-expected reduction in polysilicon production [2] - As of August 27, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 6,880 lots, with a net increase of 10 lots compared to the previous trading day [2] - Data indicates that from January to July 2025, the cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity reached 1,109.6 GW, with a new installed capacity of 223.25 GW during the same period. The newly installed capacity in July was only 11 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, marking a new low for 2025 [2]