加息预期升温之际 日本两年期国债拍卖备受关注

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly anticipating a rate hike from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) due to resilient economic growth and persistent inflation, with expectations for a potential increase in October [1][4] Group 1: Market Expectations - The two-year Japanese government bond auction is under close scrutiny, with expectations for steady demand as the two-year bond yield is approximately 0.87%, near its highest level since 2008 [1] - The swap market indicates a 70% probability of the BOJ raising rates before the end of the year, driven by a core CPI increase of 3.1% year-on-year in July, surpassing the BOJ's 2% target [1] - Market speculation about a potential rate hike in October has risen, with current estimates placing the likelihood at around 53% [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The tight labor market in Japan is expected to continue driving wage increases, further fueling inflation concerns [4] - The rise in yields for long-term Japanese government bonds is attributed to the BOJ's gradual reduction of its large-scale bond purchasing program, alongside concerns about increasing inflation and potential new fiscal stimulus measures following the ruling coalition's loss in the upper house elections [4] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that short-term and mid-term bond yields may stabilize, while long-term yields remain under pressure due to fiscal concerns [4] - There is a growing belief that the BOJ is eager to take action against domestic inflation, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike before the end of the year [4] - The sensitivity of the long-term Japanese bond market is heightened, making each bond issuance a potential risk for the yield curve [4]