碳酸锂价格大幅下挫回补跳空缺口！部分安全生产许可证获批，价格会否延续下行？

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a significant price decline, with the main contract dropping over 5% to a new low since August 8, influenced by cautious purchasing behavior from downstream sectors and supply-side factors affecting prices [1][4]. Supply Side Summary - Lithium carbonate prices continue to decrease, with battery-grade prices at 79,600-83,600 CNY/ton and industrial-grade prices at 78,700-79,900 CNY/ton, both down by 100 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The overall supply-demand balance shows improvement, with reduced inventory and production, but uncertainties remain regarding the approval of mining licenses and operational status of mines [2][5]. - Recent data indicates a weekly lithium carbonate production decrease of 842 tons to 19,138 tons, while total inventory stands at 141,543 tons [2]. Demand Side Summary - The market is currently in the traditional peak season ("Golden September, Silver October"), providing some rigid support for demand, although purchasing activity has slowed as buyers await further price declines [3][4]. - Downstream production is expected to maintain growth in September, but the overall purchasing sentiment is cautious due to previous stockpiling [3]. Import and Export Summary - In July, China's lithium carbonate imports totaled approximately 13,845 tons, down 22% month-on-month and 43% year-on-year, with an average import price of about 9,987 USD/ton [3]. - Chile and Argentina remain the primary sources of lithium carbonate imports, with significant reductions in import volumes from both countries [3]. Market Outlook Summary - Analysts suggest that despite the recent price drop, there may still be upward potential for lithium carbonate prices, driven by supply-side disruptions and ongoing demand support [4][5]. - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, with a price range forecasted between 75,000 and 82,000 CNY/ton, as participants adjust to changing market conditions [5].