智昇黄金原油分析：内部博弈激烈 美联储形象受损

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices continue to rise slightly as market risk aversion increases due to escalating tensions between the Federal Reserve and the White House, suggesting potential further gains in the short term [1] - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by Trump has raised concerns about the politicization of the Fed, threatening its independence and credibility in monetary policy [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is facing pressure at the $3401 level, with a potential short-term upward movement followed by a decline [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices showed weak performance with limited rebound, primarily due to OPEC+ production increases and slowing global economic growth, indicating a likely downward trend [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts a supply surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase in global inventories by nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026 [3] - The International Energy Agency's latest report suggests that global oil supply growth will significantly outpace demand growth in 2025 and 2026, exacerbating market imbalances [3] - The EIA forecasts a global oil supply increase of 2.28 million barrels per day this year, with a relatively small adjustment in demand, raising the surplus expectation to 1.64 million barrels per day [3] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small declines, indicating a potential downward ABC pattern, with short-term rebounds likely [5] - Technical analysis suggests that copper may face resistance at the $4.43 level in the near term [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a bearish candlestick pattern, indicating the start of a medium-term adjustment [6] - The index is under significant pressure from long-term moving averages, with expectations of new lows in the short term [6] - Resistance is noted at the 42550 level for the index [6]