欧债阴霾从未远离！英国长债收益率逼近1998年高点，面临“滞胀”风险

Core Viewpoint - The UK is facing significant economic challenges, with rising bond yields leading to increased borrowing costs and heightened concerns over "stagflation" risks [1][4][5]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on the UK 30-year government bond surged to 5.64%, the highest in four months, approaching historical highs set in 1998 [1]. - Since early August, the UK 30-year bond yield has increased by 0.23 percentage points, significantly outpacing increases in Germany (0.13 percentage points) and the US (0.06 percentage points) [4]. - The divergence in central bank policy expectations is a key factor, with the market anticipating only one rate cut from the Bank of England in the next 12 months, compared to four from the Federal Reserve [4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Fiscal Pressure - The UK is experiencing a "stagflation" risk, characterized by high inflation and stagnant economic growth, complicating the Bank of England's ability to lower interest rates [5][6]. - Current inflation in the UK is near 4%, limiting the government's ability to stimulate the economy through rate cuts [5]. - If current yield levels persist, the fiscal space for the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, could shrink from £9.9 billion to £5.3 billion, necessitating the raising of up to £27 billion in the upcoming budget [5]. Group 3: Central Bank Challenges - The surge in bond yields is increasing pressure on the Bank of England, with calls to slow or halt its quantitative tightening (QT) program [6]. - The Bank of England is reducing its balance sheet by £100 billion annually, which is believed to be further depressing bond prices and increasing yields [7]. - Concerns over inflation and the credibility of UK policy are rising, with warnings that without government spending cuts and a halt to QT, the fiscal gap may widen, potentially leading to market turmoil [7].