鲍威尔的沉默救不了美联储

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding the independence of the Fed and the potential implications of Trump's actions on public trust in the institution [1][2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook signifies a shift from verbal threats to actual actions against the Fed's independence, which could undermine public trust in the institution [1][2]. - The Federal Reserve's statement on August 26 emphasized that governors can only be removed for statutory reasons, reinforcing the importance of independence in monetary policy decisions [4]. - Historical evidence suggests that independent central banks lead to lower inflation and more sustainable economic growth, highlighting the critical nature of the Fed's autonomy [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Market responses indicate a belief that Trump will not significantly alter the Fed's structure or monetary policy direction, as evidenced by the mixed movements in U.S. Treasury yields following the events [5]. - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 4 basis points, suggesting a slight increase in the likelihood of short-term rate cuts, while the 30-year yield rose by approximately 3 basis points, indicating concerns about potential inflation from loose monetary policy [5]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Economists warn that inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling, making a credible and independent central bank essential for combating inflation [6]. - Allowing Trump to spread doubts about the Fed's independence could complicate efforts to address current and future inflation challenges, necessitating a strong response from Fed Chair Powell [6].