博时基金宏观策略部王橹舟：下半年关注两大资产配置主线

Group 1: Market Outlook and Strategies - The current stock market shows a recovery in risk appetite, but fundamental pressures maintain a range-bound pattern, with overall trends positive but subject to periodic corrections and sector rotations [2] - The driving forces behind market movements are primarily capital flows and policy expectations, with sustainability dependent on corporate earnings and overall demand improvements [2] - The "barbell strategy" remains relevant, with adjustments suggested for both sides based on risk-reward considerations and trend analysis [2] Group 2: Asset Allocation Insights - In a low-interest-rate environment, the focus should be on emerging market equities and gold or short-term U.S. Treasuries as key asset allocation themes [1] - The importance of low-correlation strategies is emphasized, as single strategies struggle to manage drawdowns effectively; integrating various strategies can enhance overall portfolio Sharpe ratios [1][4] - The shift in bond market strategy from "yield-driven" to "portfolio optimization" is noted, with an emphasis on maintaining liquidity and managing duration to reduce volatility [6] Group 3: Risk Management Approaches - The risk of losses can be managed through both preemptive and reactive measures, with a focus on strategic asset allocation and tactical short-term signals to mitigate "missing out" risks [5] - The bond market faces multiple pressures, including capital diversion to equities and inflation expectations, necessitating a defensive approach with a focus on short to medium-term credit bonds [6]