法国总理政治豪赌引发“多事之秋”！总统马克龙也被拉下水？

Group 1 - The French Prime Minister François Bayrou's decision to hold a confidence vote has plunged the Eurozone's second-largest economy back into crisis, raising significant economic risks and concerns about a potential recession [2] - Business leaders in France express that the uncertainty surrounding the political situation is likely to lead consumers to delay spending decisions, which could severely impact the economy [2][3] - France's economy grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, primarily supported by a rebound in household spending, but this reliance on consumption raises concerns about recession risks [2][3] Group 2 - Bayrou's proposed budget tightening plan of €44 billion includes measures such as canceling two public holidays and freezing most public spending, amidst rising debt and deficit levels [3] - Polls indicate that a significant majority of the French public prefers new national elections, with support for this approach ranging from 56% to 69% [3][4] - The political landscape shows that 41% of respondents favor the far-right National Rally leading the next government, although 59% oppose this party's leadership [4] Group 3 - The decision to hold a confidence vote has triggered significant market sell-offs, narrowing the yield spread between French and Italian 10-year bonds, while the French 30-year bond yield reached a 14-year high of 4.45% [5] - Analysts suggest that whether a new Prime Minister is appointed or early elections are called, both scenarios could lead to prolonged uncertainty in the market [5] - Upcoming credit rating assessments could act as catalysts for the bond market, with Fitch planning to evaluate France shortly after the confidence vote [5]