ETO Markets 市场洞察：澳元惊现V型反转？数据揭示9月降息或生变！

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a narrow range around 0.6470 against the US dollar (USD), with recent fluctuations indicating a technical rebound but remaining constrained below the Bollinger middle band at 0.6480 [1][3]. Fundamental Analysis - Australia's July CPI rose to 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.3% and up from 1.9% previously, driven by rising electricity prices due to the expiration of household subsidies [3]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in September have decreased from 30% to 22%, while the probability for a November cut has increased to 61%, suggesting a potential delay in "preventive easing" measures [3]. - The RBA emphasized a data-driven decision-making framework, indicating that future policy will depend on inflation, economic growth, and employment indicators [3]. - External factors, such as political uncertainty in the US, have created short-term disturbances for the USD, potentially providing relative support for risk currencies like the AUD [3]. Technical Analysis - The Bollinger Bands indicate a short-term framework with the upper band at 0.6501, middle band at 0.6480, and lower band at 0.6459, suggesting the AUD is currently in a weak channel below the middle band [4]. - Key support is identified between 0.6462 and 0.6469; if this area is breached, the lower band at 0.6459 may be tested [4]. - The MACD shows a narrowing gap between DIFF (-0.0006) and DEA (-0.0005), indicating a potential weakening of bearish momentum, but confirmation is needed for a short-term rebound [4]. Short-term Outlook - If the support band at 0.6462-0.6459 holds, the AUD may form a "U-shaped recovery" within the range of 0.6465-0.6485, with a high probability of retesting the Bollinger middle band at 0.6480 [5]. - A MACD crossover and RSI recovery towards the 50 level could extend the rebound towards the upper Bollinger band at 0.6501 and previous high at 0.6504 [5]. - Conversely, if the 0.6459 level is broken, bearish momentum may increase, targeting lower volatility zones [5]. Medium-term Outlook - The direction of inflation, GDP, and employment data will be crucial for the RBA's policy decisions leading up to the September meeting [5]. - A synchronized decline in these indicators may challenge the AUD's interest rate advantage, leading to a potential return to a downward channel [5]. - However, if inflation remains sticky and employment weakens moderately, alongside external pressures on the USD, there may be a window for the AUD to experience "oscillating upward" movements [5]. ETO Markets Viewpoint - The focus in the short term is on the support band, while the medium-term outlook relies on the consistency of economic data [6].