施罗德投资：美国“软着陆”仍为主线，下行风险升温或致债市前景分化

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Schroders has adjusted the probability of a "soft landing" scenario for the U.S. economy to 10% and increased the likelihood of a "hard landing" to 20% following weaker employment data in July and downward revisions of May and June data [1] - Despite the changing risk outlook, Schroders maintains that a benign economic "soft landing" is still the most likely outcome in the medium term [1] - The U.S. economy is described as being in a "muddling through" state, with growth not strong but still positive, and the likelihood of stabilization being greater than continued decline [1] Group 2 - Weaker labor market data, including slowing job growth and a narrowing range of new positions, indicates increased economic vulnerability, which may affect the Federal Reserve's willingness to accelerate monetary policy easing [2] - There is currently no sufficient reason for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in September, but there is now more room for faster rate reductions than previously expected [2] - In Europe, the economic environment is improving as tariff uncertainties decrease, and the European Central Bank has signaled no further rate cuts, providing a positive outlook for the European economy [2]