中邮证券：给予迎驾贡酒买入评级

Investment Highlights - Company reported 2025 mid-year results with revenue of 3.16 billion and net profit of 1.13 billion, reflecting year-on-year declines of 16.89% and 18.19% respectively [1] - Gross margin for H1 2025 was 73.62%, slightly up by 0.18 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit margin was 35.76%, down by 0.57 percentage points [1] - Sales revenue for H1 2025 was 3.49 billion, a decrease of 10.00% year-on-year, with cash flow from operations dropping by 45.71% to 317 million [1][2] Market Conditions - Short-term market faces pressures from channel inventory digestion and weak demand, leading to sales challenges in H1 2025 [2] - The decline in ordinary liquor sales was more significant than that of mid-to-high-end liquor, resulting in a slight improvement in product mix [2] - Company’s core product series showed manageable declines, with a focus on optimizing marketing activities and enhancing channel control [3] Future Outlook - The worst performance period is expected to be Q2 2025, with gradual improvement anticipated in the second half of the year as policy impacts lessen [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 6.73 billion, 7.02 billion, and 7.68 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -8.41%, 4.36%, and 9.42% [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.32 billion, 2.46 billion, and 2.79 billion, with corresponding EPS of 2.90, 3.08, and 3.49 [4]