日本10月加息预期压不住了？长债收益率大涨，短债拍卖遇冷

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains a neutral stance despite market speculation about potential interest rate hikes as early as October, leading to a rise in long-term bond yields and a weak demand for short-term bond auctions [2][3] - BOJ committee member Junko Nakagawa emphasized that the central bank will continue to raise policy rates if economic and inflation conditions allow, while also highlighting trade-related uncertainties [3] - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds reached a 17-year high earlier this week, driven by stable economic activity and persistent inflation, further fueling speculation about interest rate hikes [3] Group 2 - The auction demand for Japan's two-year government bonds fell to its weakest level in 16 years, with an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.84, the lowest since 2009 [4] - The weak auction results are attributed to speculation about BOJ interest rate hikes and expectations of increased short-term bond issuance, making it difficult for investors to establish positions at the short end of the curve [4] - Overall, the poor auction results across various maturities indicate weakening market demand amid improved economic prospects and hawkish signals from the BOJ [4]