淮北矿业(600985)：价跌拖累Q2业绩 煤化工环比减亏

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to a sharp drop in coking coal prices in June, which exceeded expectations [1]. Financial Performance - For 1H25, the company achieved a revenue of 20.612 billion yuan, down 44.64% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.032 billion yuan, down 64.85% year-on-year [1]. - In 2Q25, revenue was 10.083 billion yuan, with a net profit of 340 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 74.73% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 50.8% [1]. Coal Business - Production and sales of commercial coal in 1H25 were 8.91 million tons and 6.48 million tons, respectively, down 14% and 19% year-on-year, mainly due to geological conditions affecting output [1]. - In 2Q25, the company produced 4.6 million tons of commercial coal, down 10% year-on-year but up 7% quarter-on-quarter, with sales of 3.5 million tons, down 13% year-on-year but up 18% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The average price of coal in 2Q25 was 748 yuan per ton, down 364 yuan year-on-year and 190 yuan quarter-on-quarter [1]. Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton in 2Q25 was 426 yuan, down 111 yuan year-on-year and 94 yuan quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective cost control [1]. - The gross profit per ton of coal in 2Q25 was 322 yuan, down 253 yuan year-on-year and 96 yuan quarter-on-quarter [1]. Coal Chemical Business - In the coal chemical segment, coke production and sales in 1H25 were 1.71 million tons and 1.68 million tons, respectively, with an average price of 1,418 yuan per ton [1]. - Methanol production and sales in 1H25 were 310,000 tons and 120,000 tons, respectively, with an average price of 2,133 yuan per ton [1]. - Ethanol production and sales in 1H25 were 230,000 tons and 220,000 tons, respectively, with an average price of 4,896 yuan per ton [1]. Future Outlook - The company expects a sequential improvement in performance for Q3 due to a rebound in coking coal prices and downstream steel mills restocking [2]. - The annual production forecast has been revised down, with expectations of less than 19 million tons, but potential growth is anticipated in 2026 with the resumption of production at the Xinh Lake mine and the commissioning of the Tao Hutou project [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the unexpected decline in coking coal prices, the company has lowered its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 37.7% and 29.2%, respectively [3]. - The target price is maintained at 15 yuan, reflecting a potential upside of 19% based on the projected P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 [3].