兴业银锡(000426)：短期扰动影响利润释放 不改长期向好趋势

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in its H1 2025 financial results, with revenue growth but a decline in net profit due to various operational challenges [1][2] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.473 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 796 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9% [1] - Q2 2025 revenue was 1.324 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.7% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.2% [1] - Q2 2025 net profit was 421 million yuan, down 35.6% year-on-year but up 12.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] Operational Challenges - The decline in net profit was primarily due to several factors: - Silver and tin production was impacted by the "3.9" accident, leading to a decrease in ore quality [1] - Construction issues at subsidiary Yubang resulted in underutilization of capacity and lower ore quality [1] - Increased costs at Rongguan due to higher levels of unremovable gangue and a 10.69% drop in average selling price of iron concentrate [1] - Production disruptions at Qianjinda due to equipment repairs and increased mining costs [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates growth opportunities from the expansion of Silver Mine Phase II, Yubang, and Atlantic Tin Mining [2] - Despite short-term production challenges, silver and tin output for H1 2025 was 131.32 tons and 3589.82 tons, reflecting a year-on-year change of +4.57% and -20.64% respectively [2] - The company has received approval for the expansion project at Silver Mine, increasing capacity from 1.65 million tons/year to 2.97 million tons/year [2] - A planned acquisition of 85% of Yubang Mining for 2.388 billion yuan is expected to enhance growth potential [2] - The successful acquisition of 96.04% of Atlantic Tin Mining is also projected to contribute to future growth [2] Earnings Forecast - The company projects EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.08 yuan, 1.39 yuan, and 1.64 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19, 15, and 12 times [2]