| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600338 | 西藏珠峰 | 18.07 | -5.98% | 114.84万 | 21.44亿 | | 920634 | 新威凌 | 27.39 | -5.06% | 5.54万 | 1.59亿 | | 002114 | 罗平锌电 | 9.73 | -4.14% | 93.81万 | 9.74亿 | | 000688 | 国城矿业 | 24.70 | -3.55% | 24.92万 | 6.24亿 | | 600490 | 鹏欣资源 | 7.88 | -3.55% | 94.31万 | 7.60亿 | | 601600 | 中国铝业 | 13.26 | -3.49% | 527.01万 | 71.41亿 | | 002532 | 天山铝业 | 18.00 | -3.28% | 79.36万 | 14.67 亿 | | 600961 | 株冶集团 | 18.89 | -3.13% | 39.42万 | 7.67亿 | | 000807 | 云铝股 ...

| | 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | | | （元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 2259.HK | 紫金黄金国际 | 150.70 | 4.51 | 7.77 | 8.48 | 33 | 19 | 18 | 推荐 | | 2099.HK | 中国黄金国际 | 160.90 | 9.70 | 11.34 | 13.70 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 推荐 | | 601069.SH | 西部黄金 | 28.88 | 0.55 | 2.22 | 3.23 | 52 | 13 | 9 | 推荐 | | 1818.HK | 招金矿业 | 35.58 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.73 | 35 | 27 | 21 | 推荐 | | 600547.SH | 山东黄金 | 43 ...

整体盘面： 上证指数冲高回落跌0.31% 盘中一度逼近4200点，三市成交量再创新高逼近4万亿元，成交额续创历史新高。 板块方面： 板块题材上，受益于大宗商品价格暴涨，板块掀涨停潮。翔鹭钨业涨停，华锡有色、兴业银锡、厦门钨业、中钨高新均创历史新高，湖南白银、株冶集团等 跟涨。消息面上，1月以来钨市"暴动式"上涨，钨粉价格突破110万元/吨，钨精矿涨至46.4万元/标吨，沪锡期货主力合约盘中大涨7%刷新历史高点，带动板 块走强。量子科技概念受"十五五"时期技术攻关政策催化，德美化工、科大国创涨停。前期热门的商业航天板块因累计涨幅巨大、多只大牛股发布交易风险 提示，出现大幅调整。 后市展望： 午间沪深北交易所同步发布通知，将融资保证金最低比例从80%提高至100%，该调整为逆周期调节安排，仅适用于新开融资合约，旨在适当降低市场杠杆 水平，促进市场长期稳定，政策兼顾稳市场与防风险的平衡。同日，央行开展2408亿元7天期逆回购操作，单日净投放2122亿元，为市场提供充足流动性， 对冲杠杆调整带来的情绪影响。2015年的上调是"急刹车"，当时是从50%的超低门槛直接翻倍到100%，冲击力极大。而这次是从80%回到100 ...

Core Insights - The industrial metal sector experienced a rise of 1.18% on January 14, with Xingye Silver Tin leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4126.09, down 0.31%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14248.6, up 0.56% [1] Industrial Metal Sector Performance - Xingye Silver Tin (000426) closed at 50.38, up 7.74% with a trading volume of 1.01 million shares and a transaction value of 50.13 billion [1] - Baiyin Nonferrous (601212) closed at 7.05, up 7.63% with a trading volume of 4.97 million shares and a transaction value of 34.46 billion [1] - Shengda Resources (000603) closed at 40.92, up 6.23% with a trading volume of 482,300 shares and a transaction value of 19.37 billion [1] - Xibu Mining (601168) closed at 30.06, up 5.77% with a trading volume of 1.09 million shares and a transaction value of 32.84 billion [1] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) closed at 59.80, up 4.53% with a trading volume of 971,200 shares and a transaction value of 57.89 billion [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The industrial metal sector saw a net outflow of 2.12 billion from main funds, while retail funds had a net inflow of 1.56 billion [2] - The main funds' net inflow for Yuguang Jin Lead (600531) was 297 million, accounting for 14.47% of its total [3] - Yunnan Copper (000878) had a net inflow of 187 million from main funds, representing 5.26% [3] - The net inflow for North Copper (000737) was 145 million, accounting for 5.89% [3]

作为聚焦上游资源领域的投资工具，矿业ETF(159690)覆盖金银铜锂稀土等多种战略性资源，前三大权 重品种占比近六成。该ETF通过集中投资上游资源龙头，在有色金属价格上涨时展现出显著的价格弹 性，净值涨幅往往数倍于商品本身，被誉为"周期放大器"。随着全球制造业周期企稳回升，以及新能 源、人工智能等新兴产业对上游资源的需求持续增长，矿业板块的中长期投资价值值得重点关注。 1月14日，有色板块持续强势。数据显示，截至13时38分，"周期放大器有色矿业ETF招商(159690)放量 涨1.23%冲击四连升。成分股湖南白银、白银有色、兴业银锡、锡业股份涨幅居前。 分析称，本轮板块走强源于坚实的供需基本面支撑。供给端，全球主要有色金属品种面临矿山品位下 降、资本开支不足等长期约束，地缘政治因素进一步加剧供应不确定性。需求端，新能源产业快速发展 带动锂、钴等战略金属需求增长，制造业复苏推动小金属需求回升。 多家机构近期集中看好资源板块。中信证券建议适度增加有色等顺周期行业仓位，认为这些行业具备较 好的风险收益比。招商证券指出，2026年将迎来中美周期共振，有色是当前重点布局的顺周期选择。中 信建投更明确表示，资源品很可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant price increases in various metals and ETFs [1][3]. Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector is benefiting from multiple catalysts, including macroeconomic disturbances, rigid supply, and new demand dynamics [3]. - The non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has seen a price increase of over 2%, reaching new highs [1][5]. - Key stocks in the sector include Zijin Mining, which rose by 2.69%, and Yunnan Tin, which surged by 6.29% [2][5]. Precious Metals Insights - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical tensions and weak employment data, with forecasts suggesting potential for gold to exceed $4,500 per ounce [3]. - The World Gold Council reported a net purchase of 45 tons of gold by central banks in November, indicating strong demand [3]. Industrial Metals Dynamics - Copper prices are expected to continue rising due to supply constraints and regional mismatches, with a projected total market shortfall of over 100,000 tons by 2026 [6]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks and supply security concerns are driving copper prices to new historical highs [6]. Lithium Market Outlook - Policy changes are anticipated to lead to a short-term surge in lithium exports, positively impacting lithium carbonate prices [4][6]. - The demand for lithium remains robust, with expectations of continued strong performance in the battery sector [4]. Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a comprehensive investment vehicle covering various metal sectors, with a high concentration of strategic assets [7][9]. - The ETF's copper content is 34%, and gold content is 12%, making it a leading option in its category [9]. Performance Metrics - The non-ferrous 50 ETF has shown a cumulative return of 99.61% since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation increases, with a current PE ratio of 26.27, down 52% from five years ago [11].

2026年1月14日早盘，国内铜、铝期货价格齐涨。 工业有色ETF（560860）紧密跟踪中证工业有色金属主题指数，覆盖铜、铝、稀土等战略资源龙头。该 基金持续吸引资金青睐，前一交易日（1月13日）资金净流入2.5亿，过去5个交易日连续获得资金净流入 合计18.25亿元，近10日"吸金"近27亿。 资金大量涌入，基金规模迅猛增长，于1月6日突破百亿，到1月13日又迅速攀升至123.53亿元。 中证工业有色金属主题指数汇聚沪深市场中30支工业有色金属细分行业龙头标的，至1月9日，指数前三 大金属为铜（34.4%）、铝（21.8%）、稀土（13.6%），合计占比近70%，剔除了能源金属锂，黄金等 贵金属的权重占比低， "工业"属性纯粹。 指数前十大成分股汇聚了各工业金属细分领域的绝对龙头，权重集中。前十大权重股包括洛阳钼业、北 方稀土、中国铝业、云铝股份、江西铜业、兴业银锡、铜陵有色、西部矿业、厦门钨业、天山铝业，合 计占比达56.18%。 工业有色ETF(560860)是市场上唯一跟踪中证工业有色金属主题指数的ETF产品，为投资者提供了布局该 领域的一站式高效解决方案。场外投资者可通过联接（A类：018489； ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing volatility with a strong performance in the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly driven by the surge in lithium carbonate futures and geopolitical tensions supporting gold prices [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 13, the non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a significant increase, rising over 2.8% and attracting more than 730 million yuan in capital inflow, totaling over 300 million yuan in the last two days [1]. - Key stocks in the non-ferrous sector showed varied performance, with Zijin Mining up 3.89%, Ganfeng Lithium soaring 8.71%, and Shandong Gold increasing by 5.49% [2][7]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous sector is currently influenced by multiple factors including frequent macroeconomic disturbances, rigid supply-side conditions, and new demand-side dynamics [5]. - Lithium, as an energy metal, is expected to benefit from export tax adjustments, potentially leading to increased battery production and tighter supply-demand dynamics for lithium carbonate [5][8]. - Gold prices are supported by rising geopolitical tensions and weak employment data, with expectations for prices to remain above $4,500 per ounce [5][9]. - Copper prices are driven by structural supply concerns and regional mismatches, with expectations for continued price increases due to a projected supply gap of over 100,000 tons by 2026 [9]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a comprehensive investment vehicle covering various metal sectors, with a high concentration of strategic assets [11]. - The ETF's index shows a leading concentration in copper and gold, with a copper content of 34% and gold content of 12%, making it attractive for investors looking to capitalize on the ongoing non-ferrous market cycle [11][13]. - The ETF has demonstrated superior performance with a cumulative return of 99.61% since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion, indicating a strong investment case [13].

华安证券（600909）近日发布有色金属研究报告锡专题：全球锡市场呈现结构性紧缺，供给端高度依赖 少数资源国，2024年全球锡矿产量30万吨(同比-1.63%)，其中缅甸、印尼和中国合计占比达51%，矿端 政策与品位下降使新增产能有限。需求端，2024年全球锡需求量38.52万吨(同比+3.33%)，锡工业属性 突出，2024年全球电子焊料用锡需求15.41万吨，同比+3.35%，占总需求的40.01%。 供应集中且增量有限、需求保持高景气。全球锡市场呈现结构性紧缺，供给端高度依赖少数资源国， 2024年全球锡矿产量30万吨(同比-1.63%)，其中缅甸、印尼和中国合计占比达51%，矿端政策与品位下 降使新增产能有限。需求端，2024年全球锡需求量38.52万吨(同比+3.33%)，锡工业属性突出，2024年 全球电子焊料用锡需求15.41万吨，同比+3.35%，占总需求的40.01%。 锡价上行主要由供弱需强驱动。2025年初以来缅甸矿产停工时间超过预期，冶炼厂开工率被迫下调。外 加刚果锡精矿因冲突停产，影响全球约6%的锡供应，加剧原材料紧张。在需求端AI服务器、光伏等对 锡焊料需求扩张，锡供需持续紧张，驱 ...

这里是帮主郑重为你整理的中长线贵金属龙头标的清单，全部用大白话讲透核心逻辑、布局区间和实操 策略，方便你直接照着做（数据截至2026.1.12，仅作参考，不构成投资建议） 黄金组（压舱石，适合分批建仓，控制总仓位） 山东黄金（600547） 核心逻辑：国内黄金开采绝对龙头，矿产金产量连续多年居首，矿山储备和产能都很稳。美联储降息预 期+央行持续购金，金价中长期有支撑，公司业绩会跟着金价稳步兑现。前几天和矿业圈老伙计聊，他 们都觉得这类龙头的抗波动能力最强。 布局区间：当前股价45元左右，回调至40-42元区间分批建仓，首次仓位控制在总资金的3%-5%，不追 高；若跌破38元，结合金价趋势再评估加仓。 实操提示：适合作为资产组合里的"底仓"，拿住不放，别频繁交易。 盛达资源（000603） 核心逻辑：A股里纯正的白银龙头，核心资产是7座高品位银矿，白银业务占比高。白银兼具金融避险 和工业属性，光伏银浆、新能源汽车等需求持续增长，双轮驱动下，弹性比黄金大。 布局区间：当前股价（参考板块估值），回调至20%左右（比如从高点回落）分批建仓，首次仓位不超 过总资金的2%；白银波动大，一定要设好止损。 实操提示：适合在金 ...