[Table_Author] | 分析师 | 邱祖学 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0100521120001 | | | 邮箱： | qiuzuxue@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 张弋清 | | 执业证书： S0100523100001 | | | 邮箱： | zhangyiqing@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 有色金属周报 20251019 关税不确定性扰动持续，避险推动金银续创新高 2025 年 10 月 19 日 ➢ 本周（10/13-10/17）上证综指下跌 1.67%，沪深 300 指数下跌 2.22%，SW 有 色指数下降 3.07%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金+5.76%，COMEX 白银+6.55%。工业金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动 0.78%，-1.81%，-2.31%，-1.10%，- 0.46%，-2.01%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动-2.92%、- 1.52%、+1.47%、+5.65%、+3.48%、+14.68%。 ➢ 工业金属：关税引发短期波动，铜价高位震荡，美国宽松预期叠加供给扰动频 ...

"2025年以来，美元信用的加速衰退成为此次金属价格上涨的核心驱动因素，推动了有色金属价格的强 势反弹。"分析师如是说道。 行情升温，市场加温 2025年以来，一场席卷全球的大宗商品"热浪"正在迅速升温。金价突破历史高点、伦铜叩响万美元大 关、白银补涨势能释放，有色金属在资本市场的存在感急剧抬升。 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张蓓 见习记者 黄指南 深圳报道 在美联储降息周期与外部不确定性双重因素的作用下，2025年黄金及有色金属板块的表现引人瞩目。 10月15日，纽约商品交易所2025年12月黄金期货价格突破每盎司4200美元，创下历史新高，年内涨幅已 超过50%。黄金的屡创新高不仅推动了相关企业盈利显著提升，也进一步确认了市场对其避险属性的强 烈需求。 然而，其他有色金属板块表现却有所分化。工业金属受制于关税政策及全球经济预期，价格波动加剧， 但整体盈利保持稳定。能源金属则虽未完全摆脱下行通道，但价格降幅已明显收窄，企业压力缓解，盈 利质量有所改善，显示出走出底部的潜力。 在国庆黄金周后，二级市场迎来有色金属板块的强势上涨，黄金、铜、稀土等核心品种表现突出，相关 企业股价普遍走强。 业内 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [67]. Core Insights - Silver prices continue to reach new highs, with international gold prices surpassing $4,300 [2]. - As of October 16, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has seen a 3.35% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.83 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 industries [3][13]. - The precious metals sector has risen by 6.04%, while the industrial metals sector has increased by 3.58% during the same period [18]. Market Review - As of October 16, 2025, the COMEX gold price closed at $4,344.30 per ounce, up $828.2 since early September, while the COMEX silver price reached $53.43 per ounce, an increase of $12.68 [6][35]. - The LME copper price stood at $10,620 per ton, with other industrial metals like aluminum at $2,796 per ton and nickel at $15,230 per ton [25][60]. - The rare earth price index was recorded at 204.65, down 22.28 from early September, indicating a need for caution regarding external risk sentiment [42][61]. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on rare earth-related technologies to safeguard the global supply chain and address illegal acquisition issues [50]. - The World Gold Council noted that overall gold holdings remain low, suggesting potential for future price increases despite current market concerns [50]. Company Announcements - Shenghe Resources expects a net profit increase of 697% to 783% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by favorable market conditions for rare earth products [51][52]. - Northern Rare Earth anticipates a net profit increase of 273% to 287% for the same period, reflecting strong market demand and effective management strategies [53][54]. - Shandong Gold forecasts a net profit increase of 84% to 99% for the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to rising gold prices [57][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining (601899), Xinyi Silver (000426), and Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988) in the precious metals sector [60][63]. - For industrial metals, companies like Western Mining (601168) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) are recommended [60][63]. - In the rare earth sector, attention is drawn to Xiamen Tungsten (600549) and Northern Rare Earth (600111) [62][63].

（文章来源：证券时报网） 据iFinD统计，截至10月16日，沪深两市共有106股连续5日或5日以上获融资净买入。连续获融资净买入 天数最多的股票是兴业银锡，连续13个交易日获净买入；连续获融资净买入天数较多的还有同方股份、 康为世纪、华明装备、华灿光电、贵州轮胎、力量钻石、亚信安全、云天化等股。 ...

Core Insights - As of October 15, a total of 122 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have experienced net financing inflows for five consecutive days or more [1] Group 1: Stocks with Longest Continuous Net Inflows - The stocks with the longest continuous net inflows are Xingye Yinxin, Wancheng Group, and Zhongjin Gold, each having recorded net inflows for eight consecutive trading days [1] - Other notable stocks with significant net inflows include Huacan Optoelectronics, Tongfang Co., Yuntianhua, Haoneng Co., Taijing Technology, Guizhou Tire, and Kangwei Century [1]

黄金牛市有望持续。 展望后市，黄金牛市依然值得期待，相关股票业绩估值有望双升。在业内人士看来，随着行情进一步扩 散，隐形黄金股表现值得期待。 贵金属上涨趋势向好 今年以来，贵金属的涨势主导了大宗商品市场，今年3月，金价突破了每盎司3000美元的关口，本月初 突破4000美元/盎司，而10月14日再次创下新高，突破了每盎司4100美元。 银河证券表示，在美国政府持续停摆之际，叠加新的美国加征关税与贸易战升级可能，市场风险偏好或 将下滑，资金涌入黄金等避险资产，将刺激金价进一步上涨。 此外，全球央行的购金热潮以及黄金ETF持仓的增加，也助推贵金属走高。有分析指出，目前无论是全 球央行、机构投资者还是个人投资者，如今都出现了将部分原本配置在美国国债上的资金转向黄金的趋 势。 美国银行近期上调了对黄金和白银的价格预测，将2026年黄金价格预测上调至每盎司5000美元、白银价 格预测上调至每盎司65美元。 美国银行指出，白宫"非传统的政策框架"将持续利好黄金，而包括美国财政赤字扩大、债务上升等因素 也将推动金价明年继续走高。另外，美银分析认为，白银即将迎来连续第五年的结构性供应短缺，供应 紧张或支撑银价。 隐形黄金概念 ...

据iFinD统计，截至10月14日，沪深两市共有78只个股连续5日或5日以上获融资净买入。连续获融资净 买入天数最多的股票是大名城，已连续13个交易日获净买入；连续获融资净买入天数较多的还有中金黄 金、万辰集团、云天化、许继电气、康为世纪、兴业银锡、智迪科技、泰晶科技等股。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

10月15日，兴业银锡跌5.03%，截至发稿，报33.21元/股，成交20.79亿元，换手率3.45%，总市值589.69 亿元。 资料显示，内蒙古兴业银锡矿业股份有限公司位于内蒙古自治区赤峰市新城区玉龙大街76号兴业大厦， 成立日期1996年8月23日，上市日期1996年8月28日，公司主营业务涉及有色金属、黑色金属资源的采掘 和冶炼。主营业务收入构成为：矿产银34.80%，矿产锡30.81%，矿产锌19.32%，矿产铅5.12%，矿产铁 3.34%，矿产锑2.90%，矿产铜2.01%，其他(补充)0.72%，矿产金0.66%，矿产铋0.32%。 从兴业银锡十大流通股东角度 截至发稿，罗文杰累计任职时间12年180天，现任基金资产总规模1389.99亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 152.82%， 任职期间最差基金回报-47.6%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 数据显示，南方基金旗下1只基金位居兴业银锡十大流通股东。南方中证500ET ...

Core Insights - Recent surge in prices of certain minor metals, with cobalt exceeding 350,000 yuan/ton, tungsten reaching 266,000 yuan/ton, and molybdenum at 4,380 yuan/ton, indicating significant year-to-date increases [1] - The demand for minor metals is driven by the rapid development of new industries such as renewable energy and aerospace, particularly the increased need for cobalt in lithium battery manufacturing [1] - Strategic minor metals are being re-evaluated as "quasi-safe-haven" assets due to their scarcity and irreplaceable strategic uses, similar to traditional precious metals [1] Industry Overview - Cobalt prices have doubled since the end of last year, while tungsten and molybdenum have also seen substantial price increases [1] - The global supply of certain minor metals is limited and concentrated in specific regions, making prices sensitive to geopolitical and production disruptions [1] Company Performance - Leading companies in the strategic minor metals sector include: - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) with a market cap exceeding 270 billion yuan and projected cobalt revenue of 5.728 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [2] - Northern Rare Earth (600111) with a market cap over 205.3 billion yuan and a revenue increase of over 45% year-on-year [2] - Huayou Cobalt (603799) with a market cap of approximately 122.8 billion yuan, showing a significant increase in nickel product shipments [2] - Xiamen Tungsten (600549) with a competitive advantage across the tungsten industry chain [2] Stock Performance - Average stock price increase for strategic minor metal leaders exceeds 90% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the broader market [3] - Specific stocks such as Xinyi Silver Tin, Northern Rare Earth, and Luoyang Molybdenum have seen price increases over 100% [3] - Forecasts indicate potential for net profit doubling for companies like Shenghe Resources and China Rare Earth this year [3]

数据截至10月14日23:31 记者丨叶麦穗 郑青亭 刘雪莹 编辑丨包芳鸣 和佳 江佩霞 北京时间10月14日晚，美股三大股指回调，纳斯达克综合指数一度跌近2%。 截至23:30左右，英特尔跌5.5%，英伟达、博通跌超3%，甲骨文、特斯拉、台积电等热门股均明显下跌。 | 1小时爆仓 | $0 | 4小时爆仓 | $0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多車 | $0 | 多東 | $0 | | 空車 | $0 | 空車 | $0 | | 12小时爆仓 | $0 | 24小时爆仓 | $0 | | 念東 | $0 | 多東 | $0 | | 空車 | $0 | 空車 | $0 | 白 银 、 原 油 下 | | | 加密货币集体大跌，比特币跌2.25%，以太坊跌破4000美元关口。 近24小时内超20.6万人爆仓，爆仓金额近6.7亿美元。 | 而中 | 价格 | 价格(24h%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 日 BTC | $111350.1 | -2.25% | | ETH | $3969.19 | -3.00% | | III SOL | $196.04 | + ...