五粮液(000858):Q2利润增速转负 经销商集中度提升

Core Insights - The company reported a stable revenue performance in Q2 2025, achieving revenue and net profit of 15.83 billion yuan and 4.63 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.1% and -7.6% [1] - The first half of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 4.2% and a net profit increase of 2.3%, indicating a shift towards volume sales at the expense of price [2][3] - The company is undergoing adjustments in response to market pressures, particularly with the upcoming holiday season [3] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company maintained a revenue of 15.83 billion yuan, while net profit decreased to 4.63 billion yuan, aligning with previous expectations [1] - For H1 2025, total revenue reached 52.77 billion yuan, with net profit at 19.49 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and 2.3% respectively [1] - Cash flow remained positive, with cash receipts from sales in Q2 amounting to 31.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0% [1] Sales and Distribution - The top five distributors accounted for 60% of total sales in H1 2025, significantly up from 24.1% in the previous year [2] - Revenue from the company's flagship product, Wuliangye, reached 41.0 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a volume increase of 12.7% but a price decrease of 7.2% [2] - The company reported a decline in the number of distributors and specialty stores, with 2,510 distributors and 1,768 specialty stores, a decrease of 20 and 18 respectively [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross profit margin in Q2 2025 was 74.7%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to price declines in Wuliangye and related products [3] - The company experienced increased operational costs, with sales expense ratio rising to 18.9% due to higher promotional, storage, and logistics costs [3] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 29.3%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a decline in profitability [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to focus on price control and report adjustments in the upcoming quarters, particularly in light of the holiday season [3] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards to 7.56, 7.63, and 7.63 yuan respectively, while maintaining a strong buy recommendation [3]