韩国央行警告：关税将对韩国经济造成重大冲击

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea warns that the new 15% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on South Korean exports will significantly impact the South Korean economy, contrasting sharply with the previously established zero-tariff policy under bilateral trade agreements [1][2] Economic Impact - The Bank of Korea projects a decrease of 0.45 percentage points in South Korea's economic growth rate for this year and a 0.6 percentage point decline by 2026 due to the tariffs [1] - Consumer inflation in South Korea is expected to drop by 0.15 percentage points this year and by 0.25 percentage points in 2026 as a result of the tariffs [1] Trade and Industry Effects - Trade is anticipated to be the largest drag on the economy, with increased costs undermining competitiveness and reduced U.S. demand leading to a decline in orders, particularly affecting the steel and automotive sectors [1][2] - The report notes that while some exports may be redirected to other regions, the overall impact on the economy will still be significant [1] Investment Concerns - The Bank of Korea highlights the potential risks associated with U.S. investment funds, which, combined with tariffs, could hollow out South Korean industries and lead to job losses and talent drain [2] - The central bank maintains the policy interest rate at 2.5% and emphasizes the need to monitor the real estate market and the effects of U.S. tariff policies before considering further rate cuts [2] Financial Market Implications - The tariffs are expected to exacerbate inflation in the U.S., tightening financial conditions and potentially delaying interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could prolong credit tightness in South Korea [2] - Increased uncertainty is likely to weaken the economy further, suppressing household consumption and corporate investment as businesses adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding trade prospects [2] Long-term Risks - The Bank of Korea warns of long-term risks including supply chain disruptions, domestic industry hollowing out, and changes in the global trade landscape, which could permanently reshape the South Korean economy [2]