3 6 Ke·2025-08-28 07:02Core Insights - The release of the DeepSeek series of open-source large models in early 2025 has sparked a development boom in the AI sector, transitioning from "proof of concept" to "large-scale commercialization" within just six months [1] - Despite the initial excitement, many AI applications, including DeepSeek, have seen a significant decline in download and active user metrics as the hype subsides [1][5] - DeepSeek's user engagement has dropped from a peak of 7.5% to 3%, indicating a potential loss of interest among casual users who were initially attracted by the hype [1][5] Group 1: DeepSeek's Journey - DeepSeek emerged as a significant player in the AI industry, comparable to the impact of the game "Black Myth: Wukong" in the gaming sector, achieving a peak daily download of over 3.88 million [6][8] - The product has become a symbol of China's technological innovation, but the increasing "symbolic" labeling has led to a blurred understanding of its actual capabilities among the general user base [8][10] - Following the peak in February, DeepSeek's download numbers have been in a steady decline, while its monthly active users have shown a slight increase, suggesting a retention of a core user base [10] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The AI application landscape is facing a "growth bottleneck," with major products struggling to maintain momentum after the initial surge [5] - Tencent's "Yuanbao" application capitalized on the AI trend by integrating with DeepSeek's model, achieving a 20-fold increase in daily active users from February to March [14][18] - However, the reliance on aggressive advertising for growth has proven unsustainable, leading to a decline in rankings and user retention challenges by April [14][18] Group 3: Beanbag's Position - ByteDance's "Beanbag" product, which was developed prior to the AI boom, has maintained a strong position in the market due to its early entry and backing from a popular social media platform [21][22] - The product has successfully innovated features to attract users, such as a "photo answering" function during the school season, and has seen consistent growth in active users despite market fluctuations [24][26] - ByteDance's significant investment in AI, with reports of capital expenditures reaching 800 billion RMB, underscores its commitment to maintaining a leading position in the AI application market [24][26]