从基辅到柏林：欧洲能源价格暴涨300%，谁才是俄乌战局真正赢家？

Group 1: Iran and North Korea's Support to Russia - Iran's support is weak, with only an 8.7% increase in exports to Russia in 2024, primarily in drone components, while oil exports are limited due to Western sanctions [2] - North Korea's symbolic support includes only 120,000 tons of food exports to Russia in 2025, insufficient for military needs, and confirmed zero weapon deliveries [2] - Both countries face significant internal challenges, with Iran's currency devaluing over 60% and North Korea experiencing food shortages [2] Group 2: China's Economic Support to Russia - China and Russia's trade increased by 26.3% in 2024, with energy cooperation being a critical factor [4] - China's non-alignment strategy allows it to provide strategic support to Russia without direct military involvement, acting as a geopolitical buffer [4] - The trade relationship has evolved into a lifeline for Russia amidst Western sanctions, as highlighted by the Federal Reserve Chairman [4] Group 3: Europe's Energy Crisis - European natural gas prices surged by 320% compared to pre-war levels, with Germany's industrial electricity costs exceeding $0.5 per kilowatt-hour [5] - The eurozone manufacturing PMI has been below the growth line for 11 consecutive months, indicating a significant economic downturn [5] - European countries are increasingly reliant on third-party imports of Russian oil, with India's oil exports to Europe rising by 200% in early 2025 [4][5] Group 4: Ukraine's Economic Collapse - Ukraine's GDP is projected to shrink by 35% compared to pre-war levels, with public sector salaries dropping below $150 per month [7] - Infrastructure damage is severe, with 78% of railways non-operational and a 89% decline in port throughput [7] - The food crisis is exacerbated by Russian military actions, leading to a significant drop in wheat exports [7] Group 5: Overall Geopolitical Dynamics - Iran's drones and North Korea's food supplies are viewed as mere geopolitical decorations, while China's steel and energy are essential to Russia's strategic framework [8] - European sanctions and Ukraine's resistance are ultimately seen as expendable in the larger context of great power competition [8] - The ongoing conflict has transformed into a struggle for economic survival, where maintaining economic lifelines is crucial for success [10]