中国金融股估值为何上升？大摩：进入“低风险但有增长”模式，保险业将成领头羊

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that China's financial industry is entering a relatively healthy operating cycle, with the insurance sector expected to be the next to return to double-digit price-to-earnings ratios after brokerage firms, leading the financial stocks [1] Financial Risk Reduction - High-risk financial assets have significantly decreased from 62 trillion RMB (30.2% of total financial assets) in 2017 to 21 trillion RMB (4.9%) by 2025 [2] - It is anticipated that by the end of 2027, high-risk financial assets will further decline to approximately 15 trillion RMB, accounting for about 3% of total financial assets [4] Profitability and Growth Expectations - The financial industry is expected to see a rebound in income and profit growth, with overall profit growth projected to return to a sustainable level of 6-7% [7] - In a bullish scenario, financial asset yields are expected to rise by 50-70 basis points over the next 3-4 years, supporting revenue growth of 7-8% and double-digit profit growth for financial enterprises [8] Insurance Sector Outlook - The insurance industry is particularly favored, with expectations of being the first to achieve valuation recovery, supported by strong insurance sales and stable balance sheet growth [12] - If financial asset yields show improvement in the coming years, the rebound in insurance company valuations may occur faster than currently anticipated [14] Banking Sector Projections - Overall bank revenue and profit growth may return to 4-6% annually, with some mid-sized banks expected to recover to double-digit profit growth [15] - The average daily trading volume (ADT) in the A-share market is projected to exceed 2 trillion RMB, driven by improved regulatory environments and higher corporate earnings expectations [16]