绿电代煤的“山东困境”：煤电越减越多，光伏装机多、发电少

Core Insights - Shandong, a major province in traditional energy consumption and rapidly growing in renewable energy, faces a paradox of increasing coal power capacity while struggling with insufficient renewable energy generation [1][2][3] - The province's coal power capacity remains high, with approximately 115 million kilowatts by the end of 2024, despite efforts to reduce reliance on coal [2][5][6] - The high dependency on coal power, which accounts for 83% of total electricity generation, poses significant challenges to Shandong's energy transition and reflects broader national issues in achieving carbon neutrality [2][10] Group 1: Coal Power Dependency - As of the end of 2020, Shandong had about 109 million kilowatts of coal power capacity, which increased to approximately 115 million kilowatts by the end of 2024 [3][5] - Coal power constitutes about 50% of Shandong's total installed capacity but contributes to 83% of the total electricity generation, significantly higher than the national average of 64% [2][5] - The province's energy transition plan aims to reduce coal power capacity to around 100 million kilowatts by the end of 2025, indicating a target to cut nearly 10 million kilowatts over five years [3][5] Group 2: Renewable Energy Growth - Shandong has seen rapid growth in renewable energy, with installed capacity of wind and solar energy reaching approximately 130 million kilowatts by mid-2025, accounting for nearly 50% of the total installed capacity [8][11] - Despite the significant increase in renewable energy capacity, the utilization efficiency remains low, with only 12.4% of total electricity generation coming from wind and solar sources in 2024 [8][10] - The province's renewable energy development is hindered by the high reliance on coal power, which complicates efforts to transition away from fossil fuels [10][12] Group 3: Policy and Future Directions - The Chinese government has set ambitious targets for renewable energy, with state-owned enterprises exceeding the goal of having over 50% of their installed capacity from renewable sources during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][11] - The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed a comprehensive plan to enhance the quality of renewable energy development, focusing on innovative utilization and integration with rural revitalization [11][12] - Achieving a balance between renewable energy capacity and actual generation is crucial for Shandong to effectively reduce coal dependency and meet carbon neutrality goals [12]