双环传动(002472)：1H25净利润率再提升 收缩钢材业务

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.229 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.16%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 22.02% to 577 million yuan [1] - The decline in revenue was primarily due to the company's strategic decision to reduce its low-margin steel trading business, with core business revenue growing by 11.50% after excluding this impact [1] Business Performance - Revenue from passenger car gears, commercial vehicle gears, electric tool gears, construction machinery gears, motorcycle gears, smart actuators, and reducers showed varied performance, with passenger car gears growing by 12.95% and smart actuators increasing by 51.73% [1] - The company's revenue from new energy vehicle gears grew approximately 30% year-on-year, accounting for over 43% of total revenue, while traditional fuel vehicle gears saw a single-digit decline [1] - The smart actuator business experienced over 50% year-on-year growth, establishing the company as a core supplier for domestic robotic vacuum brands and e-bike drive systems [2] Profitability and Margins - The company's gross margin improved by 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the divestment from the steel business, leading to an overall net profit margin of 13.6%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points [2] - The company is actively exploring applications of composite materials in emerging fields such as AR/VR and robotics, indicating potential for further margin enhancement [2] Strategic Developments - The company is accelerating its global expansion, with its Hungarian production base entering equipment installation and trial production phases, and is engaging with major European automakers for next-generation electric drive projects [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecasts of 1.19 billion yuan for 2025 and 1.33 billion yuan for 2026, with current stock prices reflecting a P/E ratio of 26x for 2025 and 23x for 2026 [4] - The target price has been raised by 18.1% to 42.5 yuan, suggesting a 16% upside potential compared to the current stock price [4]