温氏股份(300498)：高质量稳健成长延续 估值水平存提升空间

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 5.9% year-on-year to 49.852 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a significant rise in net profit attributable to shareholders by 159.1% to 3.475 billion yuan, indicating strong performance despite challenges in the second quarter [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue from pig farming increased by 16.26% to 32.735 billion yuan, with pig sales volume rising by 15.6% to 16.6166 million heads, although the average selling price of pigs decreased by 2.56% to 14.93 yuan per kilogram [2] - The chicken farming segment faced challenges, with revenue declining by 9.29% to 15.127 billion yuan, despite a sales volume increase of 9.16% to 600 million birds, and the average selling price dropping by 18.43% to 10.84 yuan per kilogram, resulting in a loss of 1.2 billion yuan in the chicken business [2] Production Efficiency and Financial Health - The company achieved cost control with the comprehensive cost of pig farming reduced to 12.4 yuan per kilogram and chicken farming cost down to 11.2 yuan per kilogram, maintaining a leading position in the industry [3] - Key production metrics improved, with piglet production costs at 280 yuan per head and a piglet survival rate of 93% in June, while chicken farming maintained a high market rate of 95% [3] - The company's asset-liability ratio was 50.57% at the end of the first half of 2025, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the end of 2024, indicating a stable financial position [4] Industry Trends and Growth Potential - The company is positioned to benefit from a new paradigm in the Chinese pig industry characterized by reduced price volatility and increased profitability, with an estimated profit of approximately 300 yuan per pig [4] - The company aims to achieve a pig output target of 33 to 35 million heads in 2025, supported by a 6.1% increase in breeding stock compared to the end of 2024 [4] Dividend and Valuation Outlook - The company has a strong dividend potential, with an average payout ratio of 42% from 2015 to 2024, higher than the industry average [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 12 and 10 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a target price of 25 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 38% [5]