百利好晚盘分析：鲍特斗争升级 滞胀风险上升

Gold - The independence of the Federal Reserve is threatened as President Trump attempts to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, leading to market concerns reflected in the selling of U.S. Treasuries and rising bond yields, particularly in the 30-year Treasury [1] - The risk of stagflation is increasing, with rising long-term bond yields expected to push inflation higher while slowing economic growth [1] - Recent events surrounding Trump's dismissal of a Fed official are unprecedented in U.S. history and are likely to weaken the Fed's independence, which could favor gold prices due to political turmoil and rising rate cut expectations [1] - Technically, gold rebounded from $3320, with potential upward movement towards $3409 or a downward test of support at $3350 if it breaks below $3384 [1] Oil - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease in crude oil inventories by 2.392 million barrels, compared to a previous decrease of 6.014 million barrels and an expectation of a 1.863 million barrel decrease, which is bullish for oil prices [2] - The end of the U.S. driving season and the reduction in oil inventories help alleviate concerns about oversupply [2] - The ongoing tariff battle between the U.S. and India is significant, with Trump raising tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, pressuring India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil [2] - Technically, oil prices rebounded from around $63, with a potential upward target of $65 if it breaks above $64.20, while a drop below $63 would lead to a focus on $61.80 support [2] U.S. Dollar Index - New York Fed President Williams indicated that risks are becoming balanced, suggesting potential actions in future Fed meetings, which may hint at rate cuts and increase the likelihood of a weaker dollar [3] - The dollar is influenced by two main factors: expectations of Fed rate cuts and threats to the Fed's independence, which could exacerbate market volatility [3] - Technically, the dollar has been experiencing significant short-term fluctuations, with a downward trend from around 100, currently oscillating between 97.50 and 98.80, indicating a higher probability of further declines [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been in a corrective phase since last week, finding support around 42120 and continuing its rebound [5] - The index faces resistance at 43200, and if it breaks this level, it may target the previous high of 43900, while support is noted at 42500 [5] Copper - Copper prices experienced a significant drop at the end of July, reversing previous gains, and have since maintained low-level fluctuations with weak rebound strength [6] - The resistance level at $4.50 is critical; failure to break above this could lead to a new round of declines [6] - Currently, copper is trading within a range of $4.32 to $4.50, suggesting a trading strategy of shorting at the high and going long at the low until a breakout occurs [6]