【微特稿】美媒警告美国金融市场流动性偏紧

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. financial market is expected to experience turbulence in September due to tight liquidity, despite widespread expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - A key market indicator for idle funds has remained at a very low level since mid-August, raising doubts about the need for the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity [1] - As of August 14, the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement tool fell below $50 billion, marking a recent low compared to an average daily usage of $2 trillion during peak periods in 2022 and 2023 [1] Group 2: Predictions and Implications - A report from Bank of America’s global rates strategy team predicts that the usage of the reverse repurchase tool will drop to zero by the end of August, with a slight recovery expected in September [1] - The current situation may lead to a repeat of the liquidity crisis seen in September 2019, when repo loan rates surged to nearly 10%, prompting the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity to stabilize the market [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - U.S. money market funds utilizing the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase tool are currently focused on purchasing a large volume of U.S. Treasury securities released by the "big and beautiful" tax and spending plan of former President Trump [1] - A report from Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's rates strategy team anticipates greater fluctuations in funding supply at the end of the month and quarter in the U.S. financial markets [1]