基本面脱敏期来了？从社零低于预期看消费行业投资逻辑的切换

Group 1: Economic Data Overview - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.88 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from June's 4.8%, indicating challenges in the consumption recovery process [1] - The automotive sector significantly impacted the retail sales growth, with July's automotive retail sales declining by 1.5% year-on-year, contrasting with a 6.3% growth reported by the China Passenger Car Association [1] - Restaurant consumption showed weakness, with a 1.1% year-on-year increase in July, slightly up from June's 0.9%, but still at a low level, influenced by new regulations on official dining [1] Group 2: Retail Performance Excluding Automotive - Excluding automotive sales, the retail sales of goods grew by 8.5% year-on-year in July, a slight decrease from June's 8.61%, primarily due to the waning effects of previous trade-in policies [2] - Retail sales of home appliances, cultural and office supplies, and furniture saw year-on-year declines, indicating a diminishing short-term impact of subsidy policies on durable goods consumption [2] - Certain categories remained resilient, such as communication equipment (including smartphones) with stable year-on-year growth of 14.9%, and sports and entertainment goods, which accelerated to 13.7% growth due to seasonal factors [2] Group 3: Investment Insights - The consumption sector exhibits a post-cycle characteristic, where consumer demand is closely tied to economic indicators like income expectations and employment status, suggesting a delayed recovery in consumption even with signs of economic stabilization [3] - Historical trends from 2015-2016 and 2020-2021 show that the consumption sector often experiences valuation expansion before actual earnings recovery, driven by market expectations and policy signals [4] - Current consumption data indicates short-term challenges for the sector, but ongoing policy support aims to stimulate consumption potential, with recent government meetings emphasizing the need to clear restrictive measures and promote new growth points [10][11] Group 4: Investment Timing and Strategy - The current period may represent a left-side layout phase for investments in the consumption sector, with options for low-risk investors to wait for clearer signals of fundamental improvement before allocating resources [11] - High-risk tolerance investors may consider early positioning in the consumption sector, as the long-term growth logic remains intact, supported by a large consumer base and rising income levels [11] - The E Fund Consumption ETF (159798) tracks the CSI Consumption 50 Index, reflecting the performance of 50 leading companies in the consumption sector, currently at a historical low valuation with a PE-TTM of 17 times [12]