WLY(SZ:000858) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-28 10:40Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2Q25 performance, showing a slight revenue increase but a decline in net profit, indicating challenges in the current consumption environment and increased expenses [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of approximately 52.771 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.19%, and a net profit of about 19.492 billion yuan, up 2.28% year-on-year [1]. - For 2Q25, revenue was 15.831 billion yuan, a marginal increase of 0.10% year-on-year, while net profit was 4.632 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of approximately 7.58% year-on-year [1]. Development Trends - The company's direct sales channels and low-alcohol products performed well in the first half of the year, with 1H25 revenue from Wuliangye products reaching 40.998 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.57% [2]. - The sales volume of Wuliangye products increased by 12.75%, while the price decreased by 7.25%, primarily due to the contribution from direct sales channels [2]. - The revenue from the series of wines in 1H25 was 8.122 billion yuan, up 2.73% year-on-year, with a significant increase in sales volume but a decrease in price [2]. - The company’s sales cash collection in 2Q25 was 31.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, attributed to the concentration of bill maturities [2]. Profitability and Outlook - The net profit margin for 2Q25 decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 29.3%, mainly due to a weak consumption environment and increased expenses for promotions and logistics [3]. - The company plans to maintain high expenditure levels to support distributor confidence during peak seasons like the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [3]. - The company commits to a dividend payout of no less than 70% for 2025, projecting a dividend yield of 4.3% for the year [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to industry demand pressures, the company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 5.4% to 88.545 billion yuan and 92.717 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 9.9% and 9.0% to 30.126 billion yuan and 32.133 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The target price is maintained at 174 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.4x for 2025 and 21.0x for 2026, with the current stock price reflecting a significant upside potential of 37.4% [4].