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五粮液(000858)2025年中报点评:降速调整 深耕渠道谋长远

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 52.771 billion yuan (+4.19%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.492 billion yuan (+2.28%) for the first half of 2025 [1] - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 15.831 billion yuan (+0.10%), while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased to 4.632 billion yuan (-7.58%) [1] Revenue and Sales Performance - For H1 2025, the company's revenue from Wuliangye products and other liquor products was 40.998 billion yuan (+4.57%) and 8.122 billion yuan (+2.73%) respectively, with sales volumes of 273,000 tons (+12.75%) and 86,000 tons (+58.81%) [1] - The average price per 500ml for Wuliangye products decreased by 7.25% to 751.49 yuan, while other liquor products saw a significant drop of 35.31% to 47.22 yuan due to a shift towards lower-priced products [1] Channel Development - The company focused on channel development, with revenue from distribution and direct sales channels reaching 27.925 billion yuan (+1.20%) and 21.195 billion yuan (+8.60%) respectively in H1 2025 [1] - By the end of H1 2025, the number of Wuliangye distributors was 2,510, a net decrease of 20, while the number of specialty stores was 1,768, a net decrease of 18 [2] Regional Performance - Revenue growth was led by the eastern region, with H1 2025 revenues of 20.109 billion yuan (+7.88%), while the southern and northern regions reported revenues of 21.886 billion yuan (+1.93%) and 7.124 billion yuan (+1.82%) respectively [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Wuliangye products slightly decreased by 0.24 percentage points, with a company-wide gross margin of 76.83% (-0.53 percentage points) for H1 2025 [2] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 was 36.94% (-0.69 percentage points), while Q2 2025 saw a further decline to 29.26% (-2.43 percentage points) due to increased sales and financial expenses [3] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 30.835 billion yuan, 32.376 billion yuan, and 33.803 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with expected growth rates of -3.20%, 5.00%, and 4.41% [4]