STARTRADER星迈：欧元/美元维持区间波动，关注美国数据

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair is experiencing slight declines around 1.1600 due to a mild rise in the US dollar, with investors focusing on upcoming key US economic data releases, including Q2 GDP and PCE inflation data [1][5] Technical Overview - The Euro/USD shows signs of recovery but remains in a consolidation phase, with resistance at the August high of 1.1742. A breakout could lead to levels of 1.1788 and 1.1830, with a potential target of 1.1909 [3] - Key support levels are identified at the 100-day simple moving average of 1.1502, above the August low of 1.1391 and the weekly pivot of 1.1210 [3] Momentum Indicators - Momentum indicators are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly above 50 indicating moderate upward potential, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) below 11 suggests a lack of clear trend [4] Market Sentiment - The Euro/USD is expected to remain in a consolidation state until a catalyst emerges, such as new guidance from the Federal Reserve or new trade news, with the dollar likely maintaining a dominant market tone [5] Economic Data Overview - Upcoming economic events include various indicators from Australia, Switzerland, and the Eurozone, with notable figures such as the Eurozone Business Confidence and Consumer Confidence expected to be released [6] Trade Relations - Global trade tensions have eased temporarily, with the US and China agreeing to extend the trade truce for 90 days, although tariffs remain high. The US has imposed a 15% tariff on most European imports, while the EU has agreed to eliminate tariffs on US industrial goods [7] Political Landscape in France - The political situation in France is under scrutiny as Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a confidence vote regarding his budget plan, with potential implications for President Emmanuel Macron's government [8] Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve is maintaining a wait-and-see approach, with Chairman Jerome Powell indicating rising risks in the labor market and inflation not yet at target levels, opening the door for potential rate cuts [9] European Central Bank's Position - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a more cautious stance, with President Christine Lagarde suggesting that Eurozone economic growth is stable, indicating no urgency for rate cuts [10] Speculative Positions - Speculative positions in the Euro have increased, with net long positions rising to a three-week high, indicating growing confidence in market positions [11]