君諾金融：黄金买家再次在3400美元关口遭遇阻力，接下来会怎样？

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices reached a two-week high of $3,400 before declining towards $3,375, with market optimism ahead of U.S. data releases and a weakening dollar [1][11] Technical Analysis - A breakthrough above $3,400 is crucial for a sustained upward trend, with the RSI indicator remaining bullish [1] - The 14-day RSI is currently at 57.00, indicating a positive short-term outlook for gold as long as it stays above 50 [3] - The bullish crossover remains intact, with the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) closing above the 50-day SMA, confirming a bullish signal [4] - Resistance is noted at the $3,400 level, with a potential static resistance at $3,440 if this level is breached [5] - On the downside, sellers may test the 21-day moving average at $3,359, and a drop below this could challenge the 50-day moving average at $3,348 [6] - A solid support level is identified at the 100-day moving average of $3,328, with a sustained drop below this level negating any positive mid-term trends [7] Fundamental Analysis - Gold buyers are pausing ahead of significant U.S. economic data releases, including GDP revisions, unemployment claims, and pending home sales, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on potential rate cuts [8] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, particularly after dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams [8] - Williams emphasized the need to observe upcoming economic data before deciding on rate cuts, which contributed to a strong rebound in gold prices [8] - Ongoing tensions between President Trump and Fed Governor Lisa Cook may limit downward pressure on gold prices, as Trump's attacks on Fed independence and dovish expectations persist [10] - The escalating global trade war, including increased tariffs from Mexico and Canada on China, and potential U.S. tariffs on India, may sustain gold's safe-haven demand [10]